1.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Maróczy Line has a 52.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.1% and 54.6%), based on 1.3K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 60% → 34%
Best in Rapid (53%), worst in Blitz (49%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | ||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Maróczy Line has a 44.4% (90% CI: 42.1%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Maróczy Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 62.1% win rate for white (83 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (44.5%) outperforms Rapid (37.4%) by 7.1%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Maróczy Line has a sharpness score of 93.4 (decisive), meaning 93.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Maróczy Line has a 42.5% (90% CI: 38.8%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 473 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Maróczy Line has a 43.2% (90% CI: 40.0%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 648 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Maróczy Line has a 45.1% (90% CI: 40.8%-49.5%) win rate for white (352 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Maróczy Line has a 44.5% (90% CI: 41.8%-47.2%) win rate for white (894 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Maróczy Line is slightly favors black with a 44.4% (90% CI: 42.1%-46.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.