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Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon

304K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.9%Range (90% confident): 49.7% – 50.0%Based on 304K games
0%49.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.7% – 50.0%
Outcome Distribution
47.9%4.0%48.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...g6
Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon
Analyzen=304K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 49.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.7% and 50.0%), based on 304K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 53% → 36%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 53.2% win rate (2,539 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.6% win rate (10,242 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.3% win rate (28,129 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.3% win rate (56,141 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.6% win rate (84,179 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.9% win rate (75,879 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.9% win rate (35,769 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.3% win rate (9,997 games)
  • 2500+: 36.3% win rate (997 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (51%), worst in Classical (45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.5% win rate (47 games)
  • Bullet: 49.5% win rate (89,272 games)
  • Blitz: 47.4% win rate (165,363 games)
  • Rapid: 46.5% win rate (47,102 games)
  • Classical: 45.3% win rate (2,088 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (1,067 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (1,144 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (322 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (4,340 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (4,585 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (1,287 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (24 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (10,148 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (14,047 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (3,867 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.1% expected score (62 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 36.2% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (17,438 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (29,492 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (8,918 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (280 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (21,114 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (48,435 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (13,902 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (720 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (17,142 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (45,351 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (12,532 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (846 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (11,598 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (18,576 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (5,447 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (144 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (5,597 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (3,576 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (816 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.2% expected score (828 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (157 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 48.1% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 304K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 52.3% win rate for white (10.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (48.3%) outperforms Classical (47.8%) by 0.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 44.9% (90% CI: 43.2%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.0%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.3%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 56K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 84K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 76K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 36K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.5%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 10.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 51.8% (90% CI: 49.2%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 997 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 11.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.4%-48.0%) win rate for white (89K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.5%) win rate for white (165K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.8%) win rate for white (47K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.0%-49.6%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon is statistically balanced with a 48.1% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.