Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon
304K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.0%.
Measured over 304K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 304K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 304K
- Best context
- 54.9% at 0-999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 38.7% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.0%
- Draws
- 4.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 60.8% at 0-999, 40.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (1,067 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (1,144 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (322 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (4,340 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (4,585 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (1,287 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (24 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (10,148 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (14,047 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (3,867 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.1% expected score (62 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 36.2% expected score (13 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (17,438 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (29,492 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (8,918 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (280 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (21,114 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (48,435 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (13,902 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (720 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (17,142 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (45,351 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (12,532 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (846 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (11,598 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (18,576 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (5,447 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (144 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (5,597 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (3,576 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (816 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.2% expected score (828 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (157 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon scores 49.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.7% and 50.0% — from 304K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 304K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon, Black wins 47.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 304K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 54.2% (2.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.6% in Blitz (165K games) against 49.0% in Rapid (47K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon?
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 53.2%, draws 2.0% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 50.6%, draws 2.6% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 50.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 28K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.3%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 56K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.6%, draws 3.9% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 84K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.9%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 76K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.9%, draws 4.8% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.3%, draws 5.4% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 10.0K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 36.3%, draws 11.9% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.3%. It rests on 997 Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 49.5%, draws 2.7% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 89K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 47.4%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 165K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.5%, draws 5.1% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 47K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 45.3%, draws 6.9% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Accelerated Dragon is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.9% of its games and loses 48.1%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.