Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack
59K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.7%.
Measured over 59K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 6.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 59K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 59K
- Best context
- 59.7% at 2500+ Blitz
- Worst context
- 48.6% at 1400-1599 Blitz
- Average game length
- 39 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.7%
- Draws
- 6.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 55.2% at 0-999, 59.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (51 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.2% expected score (41 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (182 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (277 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 39.7% expected score (37 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (438 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (1,102 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (231 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (809 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (3,134 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (855 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.9% expected score (79 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (1,516 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (6,678 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (1,842 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (163 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (2,461 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (9,753 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (2,530 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.2% expected score (135 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (4,199 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (13,670 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (1,868 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (38 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (3,422 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.7% expected score (3,119 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (114 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack scores 53.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.0% and 53.7% — from 59K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 59K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack, White wins 50.2%, draws 6.3% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 59K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 58.0% (6.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.1% in Blitz (38K games) against 52.4% in Rapid (7.5K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack?
The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack has a sharpness score of 93.7 (decisive), meaning 93.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 52.0%, draws 2.3% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 498 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 49.0%, draws 2.8% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 50.0%, draws 3.8% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 49.1%, draws 4.7% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 48.7%, draws 5.6% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 51.0%, draws 7.2% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 52.7%, draws 10.6% and loses 36.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.0%. It rests on 6.7K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 52.3%, draws 4.8% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 49.8%, draws 6.6% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 38K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 48.7%, draws 7.4% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 7.5K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 43.8%, draws 10.9% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 436 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.2% of its games and loses 43.5%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.