Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense
475K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.5%.
Measured over 475K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 475K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 475K
- Best context
- 56.6% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 45.4% at 1600-1799 Classical
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.4%
- Draws
- 3.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 45.1% at 0-999, 49.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (1,404 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (2,381 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (925 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (4,896 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (7,827 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (2,033 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (34 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 69.6% expected score (24 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (11,707 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (23,199 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (5,546 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (118 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (53 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (23,003 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (49,365 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (13,058 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (472 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (41 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (30,261 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (73,967 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (19,391 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (883 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 39.8% expected score (18 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (29,158 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (63,916 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (17,605 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.1% expected score (468 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (24,716 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (32,506 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (6,106 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (109 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (11,340 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (13,762 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (863 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (19 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (2,575 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (1,327 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (41 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense scores 52.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.3% and 52.5% — from 475K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 475K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense, Black wins 50.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 475K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 52.9% (125K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.0% in Blitz (268K games) against 48.9% in Rapid (66K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense?
The Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 49.3%, draws 2.6% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 50.8%, draws 2.4% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.0%, draws 2.8% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 41K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.9%, draws 2.9% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 86K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 51.2%, draws 3.4% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 125K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.0%, draws 4.0% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 111K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 50.3%, draws 4.4% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 63K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.9%, draws 4.8% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 49.9%, draws 7.9% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 54.3%, draws 1.6% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 156 Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 53.7%, draws 2.6% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 139K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 50.0%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 268K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.7%, draws 4.5% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 66K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 44.3%, draws 5.0% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 50.6% of its games and loses 45.8%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.