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Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense

475K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Black Expected Score52.4%Range (90% confident): 52.3% – 52.5%Based on 475K games
0%52.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.3% – 52.5%
Outcome Distribution
50.6%3.6%45.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Bc5
Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense
Analyzen=475K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.6%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense has a 52.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 52.3% and 52.5%), based on 475K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~49%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.3% win rate (4,723 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.8% win rate (14,796 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.0% win rate (40,594 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.9% win rate (85,951 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.2% win rate (124,543 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.0% win rate (111,165 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.3% win rate (63,443 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.9% win rate (25,984 games)
  • 2500+: 49.9% win rate (3,943 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (54%), worst in Classical (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 54.3% win rate (156 games)
  • Bullet: 53.7% win rate (139,060 games)
  • Blitz: 50.0% win rate (268,250 games)
  • Rapid: 46.7% win rate (65,568 games)
  • Classical: 44.3% win rate (2,108 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (1,404 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (2,381 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (925 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (4,896 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (7,827 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (2,033 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (34 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 69.6% expected score (24 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (11,707 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (23,199 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (5,546 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (118 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (53 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (23,003 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (49,365 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (13,058 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (472 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (41 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (30,261 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (73,967 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (19,391 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (883 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 39.8% expected score (18 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (29,158 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (63,916 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (17,605 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.1% expected score (468 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (24,716 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (32,506 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (6,106 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (109 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (11,340 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (13,762 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (863 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (2,575 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (1,327 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (41 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.7%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 475K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 48.0% win rate for white (4.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (50.7%) outperforms UltraBullet (44.1%) by 6.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense?

The Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense has a 48.0% (90% CI: 46.8%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.2%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 41K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 86K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense has a 45.4% (90% CI: 45.1%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 125K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.7%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 111K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense has a 45.3% (90% CI: 44.9%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 63K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense has a 42.2% (90% CI: 40.9%-43.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense has a 44.1% (90% CI: 37.7%-50.7%) win rate for white (156 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense has a 43.8% (90% CI: 43.5%-44.0%) win rate for white (139K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.3%) win rate for white (268K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.5%-49.2%) win rate for white (66K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 48.9%-52.5%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Paulsen-Basman Defense is slightly favors black with a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.7%-45.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.