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Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order

158K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.2%

45%55%
Floor49.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.4%.

Measured over 158K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 158K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
158K
Best context
53.1% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Worst context
43.0% at 1400-1599 Rapid
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
95.8%
Draws
4.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.2% at 0-999, 43.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 62.2% expected score (19 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (2,229 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (3,068 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (1,461 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.8% expected score (79 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (5,272 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (5,078 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (2,452 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (53 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.7% expected score (164 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (9,454 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (8,391 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (3,414 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 43.2% expected score (161 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (253 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (13,063 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (11,378 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (3,647 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (222 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 41.8% expected score (144 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (14,084 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (12,833 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (3,161 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 35.3% expected score (162 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.5% expected score (53 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (13,241 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (12,356 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (2,161 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (106 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (10,268 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (6,836 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (904 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (42 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (6,613 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (2,885 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (344 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (1,428 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (438 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.2% expected score (44 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order scores 49.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.0% and 49.4% — from 158K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
158K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order, Black wins 47.0%, draws 4.2% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 158K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 52.3% (18K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.4% in Blitz (63K games) against 45.2% in Rapid (18K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 45.4%, draws 2.9% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 6.8K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.5%, draws 2.9% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.4%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.1%, draws 4.0% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 30K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.2%, draws 4.7% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 28K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 49.7%, draws 5.1% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.7%, draws 6.4% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 9.9K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 39.7%, draws 15.7% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 46 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 49.9%, draws 1.1% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 749 Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 48.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 76K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.0%, draws 4.8% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 63K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 43.0%, draws 4.4% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 41.2%, draws 5.6% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 776 Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.0% of its games and loses 48.7%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.