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Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order

158K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.2%Range (90% confident): 49.0% – 49.4%Based on 158K games
0%49.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.0% – 49.4%
Outcome Distribution
47.0%4.2%48.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Nf6
Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order
Analyzen=158K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order has a 49.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.0% and 49.4%), based on 158K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 45% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.4% win rate (6,793 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.5% win rate (12,934 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.0% win rate (21,584 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.4% win rate (28,563 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.1% win rate (30,384 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.2% win rate (27,917 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.7% win rate (18,077 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.7% win rate (9,862 games)
  • 2500+: 39.7% win rate (1,914 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (50%), worst in Classical (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.9% win rate (749 games)
  • Bullet: 48.9% win rate (75,652 games)
  • Blitz: 46.0% win rate (63,263 games)
  • Rapid: 43.0% win rate (17,588 games)
  • Classical: 41.2% win rate (776 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 62.2% expected score (19 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (2,229 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (3,068 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (1,461 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.8% expected score (79 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (5,272 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (5,078 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (2,452 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (53 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.7% expected score (164 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (9,454 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (8,391 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (3,414 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 43.2% expected score (161 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (253 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (13,063 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (11,378 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (3,647 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (222 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 41.8% expected score (144 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (14,084 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (12,833 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (3,161 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 35.3% expected score (162 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.5% expected score (53 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (13,241 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (12,356 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (2,161 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (106 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (10,268 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (6,836 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (904 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (42 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (6,613 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (2,885 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (344 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (1,428 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (438 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.2% expected score (44 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.5%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 158K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 52.6% win rate for white (13K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (52.6%) outperforms UltraBullet (49.0%) by 3.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order has a 51.7% (90% CI: 50.7%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 6.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order has a 52.6% (90% CI: 51.9%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.6%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.6%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order has a 44.9% (90% CI: 44.1%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 9.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order has a 44.6% (90% CI: 42.7%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 46 moves with a 15.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order has a 49.0% (90% CI: 46.0%-52.0%) win rate for white (749 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order has a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.7%) win rate for white (76K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.6%) win rate for white (63K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.0%-53.2%) win rate for white (18K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order has a 53.2% (90% CI: 50.2%-56.1%) win rate for white (776 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order is statistically balanced with a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.5%-48.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.