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Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted

49K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.8%

45%60%
Floor52.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.1%.

Measured over 49K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 5.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 49K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
49K
Best context
57.7% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Worst context
45.7% at 1400-1599 Rapid
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
94.3%
Draws
5.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 55.1% at 0-999, 44.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (224 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (338 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (119 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (647 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (810 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (300 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (1,643 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (1,902 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (635 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.2% expected score (24 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (2,919 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (3,445 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (912 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (54 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (3,255 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (5,938 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (1,145 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.9% expected score (49 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (3,445 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (5,953 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (1,088 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (49 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (3,396 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (3,806 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (618 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (38 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (2,767 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (1,636 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (181 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (823 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (374 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (58 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 34.0% expected score (11 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted scores 52.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.4% and 53.1% — from 49K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
49K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted, Black wins 49.9%, draws 5.7% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 49K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 55.8% (7.9K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.9% in Blitz (24K games) against 48.7% in Rapid (5.1K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted has a sharpness score of 94.3 (decisive), meaning 94.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 45.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 683 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.1%, draws 4.8% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.4%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.8%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.7%, draws 4.8% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.7%, draws 4.8% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 52.8%, draws 6.0% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 7.9K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 49.4%, draws 7.9% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 4.6K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 31.8%, draws 32.6% and loses 35.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 55 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 52.4%, draws 5.0% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 19K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 48.9%, draws 6.1% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 24K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 45.3%, draws 6.8% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 45.0%, draws 9.6% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 244 Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.9% of its games and loses 44.4%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.