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Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted

49K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Black Expected Score52.8%Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 53.1%Based on 49K games
0%52.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 53.1%
Outcome Distribution
49.9%5.7%44.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Nxe4
Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted
Analyzen=49K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.7%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted has a 52.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 52.4% and 53.1%), based on 49K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 46% → 32%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.9% win rate (683 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.1% win rate (1,768 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.4% win rate (4,210 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.8% win rate (7,339 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.7% win rate (10,390 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.7% win rate (10,538 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.8% win rate (7,859 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.4% win rate (4,598 games)
  • 2500+: 31.8% win rate (1,266 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (52%), worst in UltraBullet (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (30 games)
  • Bullet: 52.4% win rate (19,119 games)
  • Blitz: 48.9% win rate (24,202 games)
  • Rapid: 45.3% win rate (5,056 games)
  • Classical: 45.0% win rate (244 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (224 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (338 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (119 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (647 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (810 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (300 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (1,643 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (1,902 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (635 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.2% expected score (24 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (2,919 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (3,445 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (912 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (54 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (3,255 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (5,938 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (1,145 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.9% expected score (49 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (3,445 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (5,953 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (1,088 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (49 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (3,396 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (3,806 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (618 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (38 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (2,767 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (1,636 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (181 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (823 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (374 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (58 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 34.0% expected score (11 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted has a 44.4% (90% CI: 44.0%-44.7%) win rate for white, based on 49K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 51.1% win rate for white (683 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (47.9%) outperforms Classical (45.4%) by 2.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted has a sharpness score of 94.3 (decisive), meaning 94.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted has a 51.1% (90% CI: 47.9%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 683 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted has a 47.1% (90% CI: 45.2%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.0%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.2%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 7.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted has a 44.5% (90% CI: 43.7%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted has a 44.5% (90% CI: 43.7%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted has a 41.2% (90% CI: 40.3%-42.1%) win rate for white, based on 7.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted has a 42.7% (90% CI: 41.5%-43.9%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted has a 35.5% (90% CI: 33.3%-37.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 55 moves with a 32.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted has a 42.6% (90% CI: 42.0%-43.1%) win rate for white (19K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted has a 45.1% (90% CI: 44.5%-45.6%) win rate for white (24K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted has a 47.9% (90% CI: 46.7%-49.0%) win rate for white (5.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted has a 45.4% (90% CI: 40.2%-50.7%) win rate for white (244 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.6%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Modern Variations, Anti-Qxd4 Move Order Accepted is slightly favors black with a 44.4% (90% CI: 44.0%-44.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.