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Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System

373K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.7%

45%55%
Floor50.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.8%.

Measured over 373K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 373K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
373K
Best context
60.2% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Worst context
45.2% at 0-999 Rapid
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
96.1%
Draws
3.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 43.7% at 0-999, 63.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (3,907 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (5,210 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (2,099 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 27.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (7,378 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (13,319 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (5,274 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (93 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (33 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (9,143 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (23,495 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (10,773 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (395 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.1% expected score (32 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (13,428 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (29,993 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (17,316 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (1,158 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.2% expected score (30 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (16,189 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (33,241 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (15,962 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (1,370 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.1% expected score (91 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (20,219 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (31,403 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (10,440 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (528 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 59.2% expected score (31 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (23,535 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (23,680 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (3,816 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (95 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (25,740 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (11,770 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 60.2% expected score (1,205 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (8,877 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.3% expected score (1,197 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 69.8% expected score (67 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System scores 50.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.5% and 50.8% — from 373K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
373K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System, White wins 48.7%, draws 3.9% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 373K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 54.9% (10K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.7% in Blitz (173K games) against 50.3% in Rapid (67K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 46.0%, draws 2.7% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 47.8%, draws 2.7% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 47.7%, draws 3.2% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 44K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 48.2%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 62K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 48.9%, draws 3.8% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 67K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 48.8%, draws 4.2% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 63K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 49.0%, draws 4.6% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 51K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 49.9%, draws 5.1% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 39K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 51.6%, draws 6.6% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 46.7%, draws 1.0% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 246 Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 49.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 128K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 48.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 173K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 47.9%, draws 4.7% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 67K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 46.2%, draws 4.9% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.7% of its games and loses 47.4%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.