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Sicilian Defense: Franco-Sicilian Variation

1.3M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

45.2%

40%55%
Floor45.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.3%.

Measured over 1.3M games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 2.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.3M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.3M
Best context
54.4% at 1400-1599 UltraBullet
Worst context
34.1% at 1800-1999 Classical
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
97.1%
Draws
2.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.9% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.4% at 0-999, 30.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (135 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (15,102 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (16,207 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (3,456 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.0% expected score (406 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (49,329 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (51,338 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (12,823 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (123 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (844 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (94,990 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (103,122 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (31,181 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (717 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (1,141 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (135,652 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (138,385 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (45,476 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 41.7% expected score (1,939 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.8% expected score (781 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (134,933 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (120,960 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (37,406 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 37.9% expected score (1,922 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.3% expected score (365 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (101,927 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (70,181 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 38.8% expected score (17,763 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 34.1% expected score (764 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.1% expected score (107 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (47,532 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 40.8% expected score (19,584 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 34.6% expected score (3,663 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 29.5% expected score (79 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (18 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (17,013 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 38.0% expected score (2,466 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 35.8% expected score (238 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 37.3% expected score (1,356 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.8% expected score (42 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 14.7% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Franco-Sicilian Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Franco-Sicilian Variation scores 45.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.1% and 45.3% — from 1.3M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.3M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Franco-Sicilian Variation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Franco-Sicilian Variation, Black wins 43.7%, draws 2.9% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 1.3M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Franco-Sicilian Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Franco-Sicilian Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 49.1% (35K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Franco-Sicilian Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Franco-Sicilian Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 43.8% in Blitz (522K games) against 42.7% in Rapid (152K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Franco-Sicilian Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Franco-Sicilian Variation has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Franco-Sicilian Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 48.0%, draws 2.2% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 35K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Franco-Sicilian Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.9%, draws 2.4% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 114K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Franco-Sicilian Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.8%, draws 2.5% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 231K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Franco-Sicilian Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.9%, draws 2.8% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 323K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Franco-Sicilian Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 42.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 296K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Franco-Sicilian Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.3%, draws 3.4% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 191K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Franco-Sicilian Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 41.6%, draws 3.7% and loses 54.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 71K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Franco-Sicilian Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 40.5%, draws 4.0% and loses 55.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.6%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Franco-Sicilian Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 34.7%, draws 5.1% and loses 60.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.2%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Franco-Sicilian Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 50.5%, draws 1.0% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Franco-Sicilian Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 45.9%, draws 2.3% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 598K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Franco-Sicilian Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 42.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 54.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 522K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Franco-Sicilian Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 40.8%, draws 3.7% and loses 55.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.7%. It rests on 152K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Franco-Sicilian Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 37.4%, draws 4.2% and loses 58.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.5%. It rests on 5.6K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Franco-Sicilian Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Franco-Sicilian Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.7% of its games and loses 53.4%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.