Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Gipslis Variation
293 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.6%.
Measured over 293 games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 7.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 293 games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 293
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 43 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 92.4%
- Draws
- 7.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 70.0% at 1000-1199, 37.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | ||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 40.2% expected score (24 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 41.4% expected score (51 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 34.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (112 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (37 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Gipslis Variation scores 48.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.0% and 53.6% — from 293 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 293+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Gipslis Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Gipslis Variation, Black wins 45.0%, draws 7.6% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 293 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Gipslis Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Gipslis Variation performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 55.7% (131 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Gipslis Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Gipslis Variation has a sharpness score of 92.4 (decisive), meaning 92.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 43 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Gipslis Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 51.7%, draws 7.9% and loses 40.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 131 Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Gipslis Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.9%, draws 8.6% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 237 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Gipslis Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Gipslis Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.0% of its games and loses 47.4%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.