Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line
48K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.9%.
Measured over 48K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 48K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 48K
- Best context
- 56.2% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 48.4% at 1200-1399 Blitz
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.2%
- Draws
- 3.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 47.7% at 0-999, 59.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (47 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (24 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (204 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (174 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 29.4% expected score (30 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (486 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (577 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (94 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (1,006 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (1,453 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (354 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (2,027 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (2,964 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (741 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.1% expected score (34 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (3,191 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (5,602 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (976 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (39 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (5,352 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (7,459 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (648 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (7,723 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (4,308 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (296 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (2,389 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 61.5% expected score (182 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line scores 53.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.2% and 53.9% — from 48K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 48K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line, White wins 51.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 48K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.6% (2.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.6% in Blitz (23K games) against 54.0% in Rapid (3.2K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line?
The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 50.3%, draws 1.6% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 409 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 49.5%, draws 2.0% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 53.9%, draws 1.6% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 51.6%, draws 2.4% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 51.4%, draws 3.9% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 9.8K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 51.3%, draws 4.0% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 51.3%, draws 4.7% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 53.6%, draws 5.9% and loses 40.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 51.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 22K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 51.3%, draws 4.5% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 23K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 52.1%, draws 3.8% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.6% of its games and loses 44.6%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.