Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
45K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.5%.
Measured over 45K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 8.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 45K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 45K
- Best context
- 53.1% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 42.4% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 39 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 91.3%
- Draws
- 8.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 44.6%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (58 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (53 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (154 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (180 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (46 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (322 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (378 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (141 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 77.3% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (674 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (684 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (184 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (1,075 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (1,736 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (271 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.3% expected score (21 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (2,042 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (4,863 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (633 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (76 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (2,803 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (9,277 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (1,298 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (93 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (4,178 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (9,211 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (1,143 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.9% expected score (21 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (2,197 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (1,473 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (108 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation scores 51.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.7% and 51.5% — from 45K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 45K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation, Black wins 46.7%, draws 8.7% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 45K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 52.5% (13K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.5% in Blitz (28K games) against 50.3% in Rapid (3.8K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation has a sharpness score of 91.3 (decisive), meaning 91.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 45.2%, draws 2.1% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 119 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 380 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 50.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 845 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.1%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.8%, draws 6.6% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 7.6K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.2%, draws 8.6% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.9%, draws 10.5% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 39.3%, draws 13.8% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 46 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.3%, draws 6.0% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.7%, draws 9.5% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 28K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.7%, draws 11.2% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 43.2%, draws 18.3% and loses 38.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 231 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.7% of its games and loses 44.6%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.