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Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line

21K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.4%Range (90% confident): 45.8% – 47.0%Based on 21K games
0%46.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.8% – 47.0%
Outcome Distribution
43.9%5.0%51.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Nf6
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line
Analyzen=21K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.0%

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line has a 46.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.8% and 47.0%), based on 21K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 50% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.7% win rate (92 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.3% win rate (270 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.7% win rate (696 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.2% win rate (1,899 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.9% win rate (2,683 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.4% win rate (4,904 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.0% win rate (5,326 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.1% win rate (3,986 games)
  • 2500+: 38.9% win rate (891 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (71%), worst in Rapid (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 71.4% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 45.5% win rate (6,338 games)
  • Blitz: 43.2% win rate (11,072 games)
  • Rapid: 42.7% win rate (3,083 games)
  • Classical: 46.4% win rate (252 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (25 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (50 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 36.5% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 38.5% expected score (94 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (133 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (42 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (156 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (418 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (121 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (688 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (906 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (289 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (699 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (1,264 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (614 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (105 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (1,123 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (2,696 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (980 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (105 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (1,348 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (3,222 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (736 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 26.8% expected score (20 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (1,569 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (2,148 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (264 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (636 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 36.1% expected score (235 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.4% expected score (20 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 21K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 53.8% win rate for white (1.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (51.2%) outperforms Classical (46.7%) by 4.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line has a sharpness score of 95.0 (very decisive), meaning 95.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line has a 54.3% (90% CI: 49.3%-59.3%) win rate for white, based on 270 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line has a 48.0% (90% CI: 44.9%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 696 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line has a 53.8% (90% CI: 51.9%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line has a 51.1% (90% CI: 49.5%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.6%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line has a 50.0% (90% CI: 48.8%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 5.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.2%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line has a 54.3% (90% CI: 51.5%-57.0%) win rate for white, based on 891 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.0%-52.1%) win rate for white (6.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.4%-52.0%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line has a 51.2% (90% CI: 49.7%-52.7%) win rate for white (3.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line has a 46.7% (90% CI: 41.6%-51.9%) win rate for white (252 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line is statistically favors white with a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.