Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line
21K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
46.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.0%.
Measured over 21K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 21K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 21K
- Best context
- 48.9% at 1800-1999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 42.5% at 1400-1599 Blitz
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.0%
- Draws
- 5.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 48.1% at 0-999, 39.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (25 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (50 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 36.5% expected score (17 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 38.5% expected score (94 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (133 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (42 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (156 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (418 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (121 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (688 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (906 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (289 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (16 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (699 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (1,264 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (614 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (105 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (1,123 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (2,696 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (980 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (105 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (1,348 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (3,222 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (736 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 26.8% expected score (20 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (1,569 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (2,148 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (264 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (636 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 36.1% expected score (235 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.4% expected score (20 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line scores 46.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.8% and 47.0% — from 21K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 21K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line, Black wins 43.9%, draws 5.0% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 21K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 50.9% (696 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 46.0% in Blitz (11K games) against 45.8% in Rapid (3.1K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line?
The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line has a sharpness score of 95.0 (very decisive), meaning 95.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 43.3%, draws 2.4% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 270 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.7%, draws 2.4% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 696 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.2%, draws 2.0% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.4%, draws 4.7% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.0%, draws 6.1% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.1%, draws 6.4% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 38.9%, draws 6.8% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.3%. It rests on 891 Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 45.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 6.3K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 43.2%, draws 5.6% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 42.7%, draws 6.1% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 46.4%, draws 6.9% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 252 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Barcza Line is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.9% of its games and loses 51.1%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.