206 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Simagin Variation has a 56.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.4% and 61.7%), based on 206 Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 20% → 55%
Best in Bullet (57%), worst in Classical (20%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1800-1999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Simagin Variation has a 42.2% (90% CI: 36.6%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 206 rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Simagin Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 43.3% win rate for white (62 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Simagin Variation has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Simagin Variation has a 39.7% (90% CI: 32.0%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 103 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Simagin Variation has a 42.0% (90% CI: 35.8%-48.3%) win rate for white (164 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.
The Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Simagin Variation is slightly favors black with a 42.2% (90% CI: 36.6%-47.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.