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Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation

383K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.7%

45%55%
Floor48.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.9%.

Measured over 383K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 383K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
383K
Best context
52.2% at 1800-1999 Classical
Worst context
45.7% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
96.6%
Draws
3.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 47.9% at 0-999, 39.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (338 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (164 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 40.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (1,674 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (1,154 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (131 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (4,534 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (5,390 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (819 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (9,903 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (18,202 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (3,461 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (130 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (15,986 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (44,168 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (10,219 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (478 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (21,348 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (72,460 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (17,274 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (696 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (22,139 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (59,543 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (12,049 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (356 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (23,141 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (25,033 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (2,953 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (60 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (7,964 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (1,419 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.8% expected score (62 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 22.8% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation scores 48.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.6% and 48.9% — from 383K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
383K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation, Black wins 47.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 383K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 49.1% (94K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.8% in Blitz (228K games) against 48.6% in Rapid (47K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 51.7%, draws 1.1% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 522 Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.0%, draws 1.1% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.5%, draws 1.8% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.7%, draws 2.4% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.2%, draws 2.8% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 71K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.8%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 112K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 94K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 51K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 45.9%, draws 5.4% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 9.4K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 47.5%, draws 2.5% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 107K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 228K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 46.4%, draws 4.4% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 47K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 47.1%, draws 6.5% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Paulsen Formation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.0% of its games and loses 49.6%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.