4.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Goteborg Variation has a 57.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 56.6% and 59.1%), based on 4.2K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 14% → 52%
Best in Bullet (56%), worst in Classical (26%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | ||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | ||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Goteborg Variation has a 39.1% (90% CI: 37.9%-40.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.2K rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Goteborg Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 45.2% win rate for white (382 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (39.6%) outperforms Bullet (37.2%) by 2.4%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Goteborg Variation has a sharpness score of 94.0 (decisive), meaning 94.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Goteborg Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 41.1%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 382 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Goteborg Variation has a 39.6% (90% CI: 37.4%-41.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Goteborg Variation has a 38.0% (90% CI: 36.3%-39.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Goteborg Variation has a 37.8% (90% CI: 33.8%-41.8%) win rate for white, based on 394 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 10.0% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Goteborg Variation has a 37.2% (90% CI: 35.0%-39.5%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Goteborg Variation has a 39.6% (90% CI: 38.1%-41.1%) win rate for white (2.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.
In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Goteborg Variation has a 43.1% (90% CI: 37.4%-48.8%) win rate for white (204 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Goteborg Variation is slightly favors black with a 39.1% (90% CI: 37.9%-40.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.