Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit
14K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
37.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 38.1%.
Measured over 14K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 2.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 14K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 14K
- Best context
- 42.8% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 34.5% at 1400-1599 Blitz
- Average game length
- 30 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.1%
- Draws
- 2.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 33.2% at 0-999, 39.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 22.8% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 32.8% expected score (71 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (45 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 33.7% expected score (173 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 29.5% expected score (230 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 21.7% expected score (25 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 35.4% expected score (547 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 34.5% expected score (910 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 33.6% expected score (187 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 37.2% expected score (806 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 35.2% expected score (1,993 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 35.1% expected score (677 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 37.7% expected score (39 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 38.0% expected score (839 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 37.4% expected score (2,519 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 36.9% expected score (1,019 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.3% expected score (59 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 36.1% expected score (600 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (1,494 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 40.1% expected score (567 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 34.8% expected score (38 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 41.7% expected score (524 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (472 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (130 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 31.6% expected score (107 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 36.3% expected score (24 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit scores 37.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 36.8% and 38.1% — from 14K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 14K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit, Black wins 36.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 61.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.4%. It rests on 14K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 42.5% (1.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 37.6% in Blitz (7.7K games) against 37.2% in Rapid (2.6K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit?
The Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 36.8%, draws 2.0% and loses 61.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.9%. It rests on 122 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 29.9%, draws 1.3% and loses 68.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 30.6%. It rests on 428 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 33.6%, draws 2.3% and loses 64.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 34.7%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 34.5%, draws 2.2% and loses 63.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.7%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 36.0%, draws 2.8% and loses 61.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.4%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 38.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 57.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.6%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 40.1%, draws 4.8% and loses 55.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.5%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 30.9%, draws 3.3% and loses 65.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 32.6%. It rests on 133 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 36.0%, draws 2.2% and loses 61.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.1%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 36.1%, draws 3.0% and loses 60.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.6%. It rests on 7.7K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 35.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 61.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.2%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 36.0%, draws 3.0% and loses 60.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.6%. It rests on 147 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 36.0% of its games and loses 61.2%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.