14K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit has a 37.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 36.8% and 38.1%), based on 14K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 33% → 31%
Similar across time controls (~36%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit has a 61.2% (90% CI: 60.5%-61.8%) win rate for white, based on 14K rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 68.8% win rate for white (428 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (61.8%) outperforms Classical (60.9%) by 0.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit has a 61.1% (90% CI: 53.8%-68.2%) win rate for white, based on 122 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit has a 68.8% (90% CI: 65.1%-72.4%) win rate for white, based on 428 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.3% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit has a 64.2% (90% CI: 62.2%-66.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit has a 63.2% (90% CI: 61.9%-64.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit has a 61.2% (90% CI: 60.0%-62.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit has a 57.6% (90% CI: 56.0%-59.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit has a 55.1% (90% CI: 52.6%-57.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit has a 65.8% (90% CI: 59.0%-72.4%) win rate for white, based on 133 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit has a 61.8% (90% CI: 60.5%-63.1%) win rate for white (3.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit has a 60.9% (90% CI: 59.9%-61.8%) win rate for white (7.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.
In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit has a 61.1% (90% CI: 59.5%-62.7%) win rate for white (2.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.
In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit has a 60.9% (90% CI: 54.3%-67.4%) win rate for white (147 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.
The Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation, Basman-Palatnik Gambit is statistically favors white with a 61.2% (90% CI: 60.5%-61.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.