TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap

15K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Play This
Black Expected Score62.1%Range (90% confident): 61.5% – 62.8%Based on 15K games
0%62.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 61.5% – 62.8%
Outcome Distribution
60.6%3.0%36.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
8...Ng4
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap
Analyzen=15K
Avg Length29 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.0%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap has a 62.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 61.5% and 62.8%), based on 15K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 78% → 55%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 77.8% win rate (3 games)
  • 1000-1199: 53.8% win rate (5 games)
  • 1200-1399: 69.9% win rate (55 games)
  • 1400-1599: 68.5% win rate (399 games)
  • 1600-1799: 70.1% win rate (1,354 games)
  • 1800-1999: 63.5% win rate (4,272 games)
  • 2000-2199: 59.1% win rate (5,335 games)
  • 2200-2499: 53.8% win rate (2,841 games)
  • 2500+: 54.6% win rate (307 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (62%), worst in Classical (53%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 61.5% win rate (4,705 games)
  • Blitz: 60.1% win rate (9,049 games)
  • Rapid: 61.9% win rate (793 games)
  • Classical: 52.9% win rate (24 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199————
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (41 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 67.3% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 71.0% expected score (249 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 67.7% expected score (137 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 70.6% expected score (432 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 70.7% expected score (846 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 72.5% expected score (74 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 66.6% expected score (1,025 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 63.9% expected score (2,975 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 64.5% expected score (261 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 62.3% expected score (1,431 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 60.3% expected score (3,549 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 61.6% expected score (345 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (1,256 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (1,491 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (94 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (265 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.9% expected score (38 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap has a 36.4% (90% CI: 35.8%-37.1%) win rate for white, based on 15K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 42.1% win rate for white (2.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (36.5%) outperforms Rapid (35.6%) by 0.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap has a 29.8% (90% CI: 26.1%-33.7%) win rate for white, based on 399 Lichess games. Average game length is 21 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap has a 28.6% (90% CI: 26.6%-30.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 1.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap has a 34.4% (90% CI: 33.2%-35.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap has a 37.4% (90% CI: 36.3%-38.5%) win rate for white, based on 5.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap has a 42.1% (90% CI: 40.6%-43.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap has a 40.4% (90% CI: 35.8%-45.0%) win rate for white, based on 307 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap has a 36.4% (90% CI: 35.3%-37.6%) win rate for white (4.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap has a 36.5% (90% CI: 35.7%-37.4%) win rate for white (9.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap has a 35.6% (90% CI: 32.8%-38.4%) win rate for white (793 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap is slightly favors black with a 36.4% (90% CI: 35.8%-37.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.