15K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap has a 37.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 37.3% and 38.6%), based on 15K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Improves with rating: 11% → 40%
Best in Blitz (37%), worst in Classical (26%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap has a 36.4% (90% CI: 35.8%-37.1%) win rate for white, based on 15K rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 42.1% win rate for white (2.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (36.5%) outperforms Rapid (35.6%) by 0.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap has a 29.8% (90% CI: 26.1%-33.7%) win rate for white, based on 399 Lichess games. Average game length is 21 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap has a 28.6% (90% CI: 26.6%-30.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 1.3% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap has a 34.4% (90% CI: 33.2%-35.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap has a 37.4% (90% CI: 36.3%-38.5%) win rate for white, based on 5.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap has a 42.1% (90% CI: 40.6%-43.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap has a 40.4% (90% CI: 35.8%-45.0%) win rate for white, based on 307 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap has a 36.4% (90% CI: 35.3%-37.6%) win rate for white (4.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap has a 36.5% (90% CI: 35.7%-37.4%) win rate for white (9.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.
In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap has a 35.6% (90% CI: 32.8%-38.4%) win rate for white (793 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap is slightly favors black with a 36.4% (90% CI: 35.8%-37.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.