Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap
15K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
62.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 62.8%.
Measured over 15K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 15K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 15K
- Best context
- 70.7% at 1600-1799 Blitz
- Worst context
- 55.7% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 29 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.0%
- Draws
- 3.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 74.3% at 0-999, 61.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (41 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 67.3% expected score (13 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 71.0% expected score (249 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 67.7% expected score (137 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 70.6% expected score (432 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 70.7% expected score (846 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 72.5% expected score (74 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 66.6% expected score (1,025 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 63.9% expected score (2,975 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 64.5% expected score (261 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 62.3% expected score (1,431 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 60.3% expected score (3,549 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 61.6% expected score (345 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (1,256 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (1,491 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (94 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (265 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.9% expected score (38 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap scores 62.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 61.5% and 62.8% — from 15K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 15K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap, Black wins 60.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 36.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.1%. It rests on 15K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 70.8% (1.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 61.8% in Blitz (9.0K games) against 63.2% in Rapid (793 games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap?
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 68.5%, draws 1.6% and loses 29.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 69.4%. It rests on 399 Lichess games, which average 21 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 70.1%, draws 1.3% and loses 28.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 70.8%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 23 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 63.5%, draws 2.1% and loses 34.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 64.6%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 59.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 37.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.9%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 53.8%, draws 4.1% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 54.6%, draws 5.0% and loses 40.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.1%. It rests on 307 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 61.5%, draws 2.1% and loses 36.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.6%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 60.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 36.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.8%. It rests on 9.0K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 61.9%, draws 2.6% and loses 35.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.2%. It rests on 793 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 60.6% of its games and loses 36.4%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.