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Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit

15K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.8%

45%55%
Floor50.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.5%.

Measured over 15K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 15K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
15K
Best context
52.8% at 1600-1799 Bullet
Worst context
48.8% at 1600-1799 Blitz
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
96.0%
Draws
4.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +4.5% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 42.1% at 0-999, 61.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 33.1% expected score (25 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (76 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (94 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (18 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (169 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (310 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (94 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (261 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (632 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (274 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 37.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (537 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (1,230 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (484 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 60.2% expected score (38 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (565 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (1,951 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (581 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (31 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (1,113 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (2,370 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (463 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (1,157 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (1,669 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (237 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (393 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (123 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 73.6% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit scores 50.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.1% and 51.5% — from 15K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
15K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit, White wins 48.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 15K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 55.8% (523 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 50.5% in Blitz (8.4K games) against 52.1% in Rapid (2.2K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 45.1%, draws 4.0% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 188 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 47.0%, draws 1.8% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 574 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 48.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 49.4%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 48.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 49.0%, draws 4.3% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 47.9%, draws 5.5% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 53.3%, draws 5.1% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 523 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 49.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 48.3%, draws 4.4% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 8.4K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 49.7%, draws 4.8% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Wing Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.8% of its games and loses 47.2%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.