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Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System

63K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.7%

45%55%
Floor51.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.0%.

Measured over 63K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 63K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
63K
Best context
56.6% at 2500+ Bullet
Worst context
47.7% at 0-999 Bullet
Average game length
37 moves
Games that end decisively
95.8%
Draws
4.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 48.0% at 0-999, 52.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (638 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (497 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (177 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (1,520 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (1,600 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (362 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (2,081 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (3,365 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (932 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (31 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (3,056 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (5,474 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (1,567 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (70 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 37.1% expected score (14 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (4,002 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (6,318 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (1,915 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.4% expected score (126 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.1% expected score (17 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (4,072 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (5,556 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (1,527 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (61 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 18.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (4,422 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (4,977 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (681 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (3,932 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (2,359 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (207 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (766 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 63.8% expected score (111 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System scores 51.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.4% and 52.0% — from 63K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
63K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System, White wins 49.6%, draws 4.2% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 63K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 57.4% (882 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.6% in Blitz (30K games) against 50.4% in Rapid (7.4K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 48.1%, draws 1.9% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 48.8%, draws 2.3% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 48.6%, draws 2.9% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 6.4K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 49.1%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 48.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 49.7%, draws 4.6% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.6%, draws 5.2% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.2%, draws 5.8% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 6.5K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 54.4%, draws 6.1% and loses 39.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.4%. It rests on 882 Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 50.7%, draws 3.2% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 24K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 49.2%, draws 4.7% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 30K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 47.7%, draws 5.4% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 7.4K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 45.2%, draws 5.3% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 329 Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.6% of its games and loses 46.2%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.