Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Dragon Variation
39K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.8%.
Measured over 39K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 39K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 39K
- Best context
- 53.1% at 1400-1599 Bullet
- Worst context
- 43.8% at 2000-2199 Rapid
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.7%
- Draws
- 4.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 60.6% at 0-999, 48.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 65.0% expected score (62 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (38 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 63.1% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (295 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (182 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 29.3% expected score (37 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (1,034 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (779 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (132 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (2,130 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (2,520 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (422 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (2,765 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (5,073 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (888 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (35 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (2,813 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (5,494 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (1,188 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.4% expected score (50 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (2,018 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (3,571 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (660 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 72.9% expected score (16 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (2,238 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (2,388 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 39.2% expected score (220 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (1,440 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (794 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (23 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Dragon Variation scores 50.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.9% and 50.8% — from 39K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 39K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Dragon Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Dragon Variation, Black wins 48.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 39K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Dragon Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Dragon Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 61.2% (110 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Dragon Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Dragon Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.2% in Blitz (21K games) against 46.3% in Rapid (3.6K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Dragon Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Dragon Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Dragon Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 59.6%, draws 3.1% and loses 37.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.2%. It rests on 110 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Dragon Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.9%, draws 2.4% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 515 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Dragon Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.0%, draws 2.2% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Dragon Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.6%, draws 2.7% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Dragon Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 8.8K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Dragon Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 9.5K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Dragon Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.6%, draws 5.0% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 6.3K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Dragon Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.1%, draws 6.0% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Dragon Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 44.7%, draws 7.6% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Dragon Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 50.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Dragon Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 47.7%, draws 4.9% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 21K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Dragon Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 43.8%, draws 5.0% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Dragon Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 42.2%, draws 11.6% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 123 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Dragon Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Dragon Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 48.2% of its games and loses 47.5%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.