Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense
42K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.6%.
Measured over 42K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 42K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 42K
- Best context
- 48.6% at 1600-1799 Rapid
- Worst context
- 44.2% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.8%
- Draws
- 3.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 64.4% at 0-999, 38.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (42 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (30 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 81.6% expected score (8 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (174 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (165 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (19 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (540 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (716 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (134 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (1,296 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (2,490 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (493 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (21 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (2,160 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (5,724 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (1,240 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (67 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (2,778 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (8,383 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (1,944 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (73 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (2,430 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (5,374 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (1,262 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (44 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (2,212 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (1,404 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (275 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (291 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (28 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 19.3% expected score (5 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense scores 47.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.8% and 47.6% — from 42K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 42K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense, Black wins 45.6%, draws 3.2% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 42K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 58.6% (80 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 47.6% in Blitz (24K games) against 47.9% in Rapid (5.4K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense?
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.4%, draws 1.8% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 358 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.5%, draws 2.3% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.2%, draws 2.1% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.0%, draws 2.7% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 9.2K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.1%, draws 3.8% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 9.1K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.1%, draws 4.1% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 41.6%, draws 6.0% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 324 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 44.9%, draws 2.3% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.9%, draws 3.4% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 24K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 43.5%, draws 6.9% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 209 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Morphy Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.6% of its games and loses 51.2%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.