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Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation

1.3M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score52.1%Range (90% confident): 52.0% – 52.2%Based on 1.3M games
0%52.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.0% – 52.2%
Outcome Distribution
49.7%4.8%45.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Nf6
Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation
Analyzen=1.3M
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.8%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation has a 52.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 52.0% and 52.2%), based on 1.3M Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 53% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 53.1% win rate (2,359 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.0% win rate (10,200 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.4% win rate (38,106 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.5% win rate (112,989 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.3% win rate (242,852 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.9% win rate (358,979 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.5% win rate (302,535 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.9% win rate (184,855 games)
  • 2500+: 41.4% win rate (49,618 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (55%), worst in Blitz (49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 55.0% win rate (265 games)
  • Bullet: 50.0% win rate (487,518 games)
  • Blitz: 49.4% win rate (676,316 games)
  • Rapid: 50.1% win rate (132,934 games)
  • Classical: 49.9% win rate (5,460 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (1,262 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (865 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (229 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.8% expected score (22 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (5,065 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (4,152 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (954 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (46 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (17,754 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (16,797 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (3,448 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 60.4% expected score (61 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (49 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (45,250 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (55,626 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (11,602 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (462 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.9% expected score (52 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (82,601 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (132,079 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (26,602 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (1,518 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (46 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (105,497 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (207,926 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (43,403 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (2,107 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 65.9% expected score (30 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (103,384 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (163,361 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (34,695 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (1,065 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (89,954 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (83,453 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (11,227 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (206 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (36,751 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (12,057 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (774 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 31.7% expected score (34 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Continuations (2)
Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation
46.5%
Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Cobra Variation
45.2%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 45.5%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.3M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 48.3% win rate for white (50K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (46.4%) outperforms UltraBullet (42.6%) by 3.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 43.5%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.1%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 44.9%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.4%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 113K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 44.9%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 243K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 44.7%-45.0%) win rate for white, based on 359K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 45.1%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 303K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 185K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 50K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 10.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation has a 42.6% (90% CI: 37.6%-47.6%) win rate for white (265 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 46.3%-46.5%) win rate for white (488K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation has a 45.3% (90% CI: 45.2%-45.4%) win rate for white (676K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation has a 43.7% (90% CI: 43.5%-44.0%) win rate for white (133K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation has a 42.9% (90% CI: 41.8%-44.0%) win rate for white (5.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.5% (90% CI: 45.5%-45.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.