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Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation

476K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.4%

45%55%
Floor49.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.5%.

Measured over 476K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 5.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 476K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
476K
Best context
60.2% at 2500+ Rapid
Worst context
44.2% at 0-999 Bullet
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
94.3%
Draws
5.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 40.6% at 0-999, 59.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (1,258 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (771 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (154 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 72.2% expected score (30 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (3,432 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (2,687 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (653 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 7.9% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.6% expected score (64 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (9,095 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (7,336 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (1,991 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.7% expected score (58 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (19,310 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (16,569 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (4,350 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.8% expected score (233 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (61 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (34,204 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (30,324 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (6,552 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (461 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.1% expected score (66 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (49,330 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (43,971 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (7,690 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (454 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (66 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (50,153 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (48,538 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (7,095 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.8% expected score (332 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 34.3% expected score (24 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (49,805 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (38,262 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (4,448 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.3% expected score (118 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (25,754 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (8,908 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 60.2% expected score (1,136 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 68.4% expected score (167 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation scores 49.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.3% and 49.5% — from 476K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
476K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation, White wins 46.5%, draws 5.7% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 476K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 52.6% (36K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.6% in Blitz (197K games) against 48.9% in Rapid (34K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 94.3 (decisive), meaning 94.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 43.0%, draws 2.3% and loses 54.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 45.0%, draws 3.0% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 6.8K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 45.6%, draws 2.9% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 45.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 41K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 46.3%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 72K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 46.9%, draws 4.4% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 102K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 47.3%, draws 5.0% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 106K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 47.4%, draws 6.0% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 93K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 43.0%, draws 19.1% and loses 37.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 45 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 49.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 382 Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 46.8%, draws 4.9% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 242K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 46.4%, draws 6.3% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 197K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 45.0%, draws 7.9% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 34K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 43.2%, draws 12.0% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Four Knights Variation, Exchange Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 46.5% of its games and loses 47.8%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.