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Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation

95K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.3%Range (90% confident): 45.0% – 45.6%Based on 95K games
0%45.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.0% – 45.6%
Outcome Distribution
43.7%3.2%53.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Nc6
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation
Analyzen=95K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.2%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation has a 45.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.0% and 45.6%), based on 95K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 36%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.1% win rate (781 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.3% win rate (3,596 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.2% win rate (9,332 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.0% win rate (16,605 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.9% win rate (21,134 games)
  • 1800-1999: 42.9% win rate (20,968 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.3% win rate (14,475 games)
  • 2200-2499: 39.2% win rate (7,189 games)
  • 2500+: 36.3% win rate (1,124 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (45%), worst in UltraBullet (24%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 24.3% win rate (17 games)
  • Bullet: 44.6% win rate (27,919 games)
  • Blitz: 43.5% win rate (51,602 games)
  • Rapid: 42.7% win rate (14,974 games)
  • Classical: 43.0% win rate (692 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (384 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (351 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (43 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (1,551 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (1,730 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (313 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (3,062 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (5,084 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (1,165 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (4,386 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (9,258 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (2,849 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (104 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (5,527 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (11,322 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (4,019 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (265 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (4,918 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (11,875 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (3,950 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (223 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (3,959 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (8,316 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (2,127 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.0% expected score (73 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (3,193 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 39.3% expected score (3,484 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (505 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.0% expected score (939 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 32.6% expected score (182 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 95K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 59.0% win rate for white (1.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (53.4%) outperforms Classical (52.3%) by 1.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 45.9%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 781 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 9.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.5%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 53.1%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 53.1%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation has a 56.5% (90% CI: 55.6%-57.5%) win rate for white, based on 7.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation has a 59.0% (90% CI: 56.6%-61.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 53.0%-53.9%) win rate for white (28K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.0%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.6%-53.3%) win rate for white (52K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.6%-54.0%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 49.1%-55.4%) win rate for white (692 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation is statistically favors white with a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.