Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation
95K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
45.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.6%.
Measured over 95K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 95K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 95K
- Best context
- 47.7% at 1000-1199 Bullet
- Worst context
- 38.7% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.8%
- Draws
- 3.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.2% at 0-999, 29.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (384 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (351 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (43 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (1,551 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (1,730 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (313 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (3,062 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (5,084 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (1,165 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (19 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (4,386 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (9,258 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (2,849 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (104 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (5,527 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (11,322 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (4,019 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (265 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (4,918 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (11,875 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (3,950 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (223 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (3,959 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (8,316 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (2,127 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.0% expected score (73 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (3,193 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 39.3% expected score (3,484 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (505 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.0% expected score (939 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 32.6% expected score (182 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation scores 45.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.0% and 45.6% — from 95K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 95K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation, Black wins 43.7%, draws 3.2% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 95K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 50.1% (781 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 45.3% in Blitz (52K games) against 44.7% in Rapid (15K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 49.1%, draws 2.0% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 781 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.3%, draws 1.8% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.2%, draws 2.2% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 9.3K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.0%, draws 2.6% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.9%, draws 3.4% and loses 53.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.3%, draws 4.0% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 39.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 56.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.4%. It rests on 7.2K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 36.3%, draws 4.7% and loses 59.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.7%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 44.6%, draws 2.0% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 28K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 43.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 52K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 42.7%, draws 4.0% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 43.0%, draws 4.7% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 692 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Sherzer Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.7% of its games and loses 53.1%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.