32K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 51.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 51.2% and 52.1%), based on 32K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 51% → 27%
Best in Blitz (48%), worst in Classical (40%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 43.7% (90% CI: 43.3%-44.2%) win rate for white, based on 32K rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 46.4% win rate for white (11K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (44.6%) outperforms Classical (41.0%) by 3.6%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a sharpness score of 90.7 (decisive), meaning 90.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 41.7% (90% CI: 37.6%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 381 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 43.9% (90% CI: 41.5%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 44.2% (90% CI: 43.0%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 45.3% (90% CI: 44.5%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 45.6%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 31.7% (90% CI: 30.5%-33.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 49 moves with a 41.5% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 41.2% (90% CI: 40.3%-42.2%) win rate for white (7.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.6%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 44.6% (90% CI: 44.1%-45.2%) win rate for white (21K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.8%.
In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 44.0% (90% CI: 42.5%-45.5%) win rate for white (2.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.3%.
In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 41.0% (90% CI: 35.7%-46.4%) win rate for white (224 Lichess games). Draw rate is 19.3%.
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation is slightly favors black with a 43.7% (90% CI: 43.3%-44.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.