Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation
32K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.1%.
Measured over 32K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 9.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 32K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 32K
- Best context
- 54.8% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Worst context
- 45.7% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 90.7%
- Draws
- 9.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 54.9% at 1000-1199, 43.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 63.9% expected score (49 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (28 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 64.9% expected score (12 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (154 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 58.7% expected score (176 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (48 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.9% expected score (355 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (687 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (147 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (26 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (868 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (2,946 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (446 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (72 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (1,950 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (7,554 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (1,125 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.3% expected score (66 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (2,241 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (8,088 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (849 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.8% expected score (24 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (1,907 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (1,693 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (256 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 37.0% expected score (33 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation scores 51.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.2% and 52.1% — from 32K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 32K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Black wins 46.9%, draws 9.3% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 32K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 54.0% (4.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.5% in Blitz (21K games) against 50.4% in Rapid (2.9K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a sharpness score of 90.7 (decisive), meaning 90.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 54.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 381 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 52.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 52.2%, draws 3.6% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 50.0%, draws 4.7% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.9%, draws 5.7% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 26.7%, draws 41.5% and loses 31.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 49 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 46.2%, draws 12.6% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 7.5K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 47.5%, draws 7.8% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 21K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.8%, draws 11.3% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 39.7%, draws 19.3% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 224 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.9% of its games and loses 43.7%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.