Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Spielmann Variation
186 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
57.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 63.1%.
Measured over 186 games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 186 games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 186
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.0%
- Draws
- 4.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 30.0% at 1600-1799, 40.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1800-1999 | — | — | — | ||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (20 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (30 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (34 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 62.1% expected score (81 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Spielmann Variation scores 57.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.3% and 63.1% — from 186 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 186+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Spielmann Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Spielmann Variation, White wins 55.2%, draws 4.0% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.2%. It rests on 186 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Spielmann Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Spielmann Variation performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 60.1% (118 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Spielmann Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Spielmann Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Spielmann Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 58.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 38.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.1%. It rests on 118 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Spielmann Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 56.3%, draws 5.3% and loses 38.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.9%. It rests on 122 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Spielmann Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Classical Variation, Spielmann Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 55.2% of its games and loses 40.8%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.