Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Classical Formation
80K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.9%.
Measured over 80K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 80K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 80K
- Best context
- 53.1% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Worst context
- 46.5% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.2%
- Draws
- 4.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.8% at 0-999, 42.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (47 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (166 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 61.6% expected score (107 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (15 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (406 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (483 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (73 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (976 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (1,801 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (359 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (9 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (2,209 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (4,918 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (1,003 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.2% expected score (56 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (3,802 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (10,922 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (2,053 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (160 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (6,044 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (16,596 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (2,494 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (110 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (8,452 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (11,222 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (1,152 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (3,468 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (890 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (63 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Classical Formation scores 51.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.3% and 51.9% — from 80K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 80K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Classical Formation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Classical Formation, Black wins 49.2%, draws 4.8% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 80K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Classical Formation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Classical Formation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 52.8% (25K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Classical Formation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Classical Formation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.5% in Blitz (47K games) against 51.9% in Rapid (7.2K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Classical Formation?
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Classical Formation has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Classical Formation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 51.3%, draws 1.9% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 288 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Classical Formation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.8%, draws 1.5% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 963 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Classical Formation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Classical Formation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.9%, draws 2.8% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 8.2K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Classical Formation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Classical Formation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 50.2%, draws 5.1% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Classical Formation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.0%, draws 5.6% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Classical Formation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 46.6%, draws 7.9% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Classical Formation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 50.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 26K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Classical Formation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 48.8%, draws 5.3% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 47K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Classical Formation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 49.0%, draws 5.8% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 7.2K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Classical Formation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 50.2%, draws 7.6% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 360 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Classical Formation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Classical Formation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.2% of its games and loses 46.0%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.