Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack

1.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
h8
g
f
e
d
c
b
a
3...d5
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.6%

45%55%
Floor50.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.7%.

Measured over 1.1M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.1M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.1M
Best context
59.1% at 1200-1399 UltraBullet
Worst context
41.2% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.3%
Draws
3.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 91.1 · Trap factor: +4.3 · 1.1M games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 56.2% at 0-999, 34.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (97 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (11,076 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (12,593 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (3,829 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (26 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.8% expected score (264 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (30,044 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (29,517 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (8,362 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 54.2% expected score (95 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 59.1% expected score (542 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (55,843 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (60,663 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (16,327 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.6% expected score (286 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (1,120 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (86,522 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (98,221 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (24,573 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (934 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.2% expected score (784 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (108,640 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (122,434 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (27,236 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.9% expected score (1,255 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 40.0% expected score (325 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (105,703 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (113,182 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (21,694 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (841 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.1% expected score (133 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (71,738 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (46,544 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (7,423 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (165 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (54 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (32,969 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (9,189 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.2% expected score (904 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (5,966 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (343 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack scores 50.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.5% and 50.7% — from 1.1M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.1M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack, Black wins 48.7%, draws 3.7% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 1.1M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 53.1% (28K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.8% in Blitz (493K games) against 48.4% in Rapid (110K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack?

The Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 51.7%, draws 2.8% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 28K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 68K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.8%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 134K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.6%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 211K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 260K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.7%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 242K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.3%, draws 4.6% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 126K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.7%, draws 5.2% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 43K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 47.5%, draws 5.7% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 6.3K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 51.6%, draws 1.2% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 50.3%, draws 3.0% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 509K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 47.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 493K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 46.1%, draws 4.6% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 110K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 44.9%, draws 5.9% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 48.7% of its games and loses 47.6%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.