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Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack

1.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score50.6%Range (90% confident): 50.5% – 50.7%Based on 1.1M games
0%50.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.5% – 50.7%
Outcome Distribution
48.7%3.7%47.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...d5
Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack
Analyzen=1.1M
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack has a 50.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.5% and 50.7%), based on 1.1M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 91.1 · Trap factor: +4.3 · n=1.1M

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 52% → 48%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.7% win rate (27,621 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.2% win rate (68,282 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.8% win rate (133,661 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.6% win rate (211,370 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.6% win rate (260,349 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.7% win rate (241,745 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.3% win rate (126,003 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.7% win rate (43,132 games)
  • 2500+: 47.5% win rate (6,334 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (52%), worst in Classical (45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.6% win rate (3,322 games)
  • Bullet: 50.3% win rate (508,501 games)
  • Blitz: 47.6% win rate (492,686 games)
  • Rapid: 46.1% win rate (110,368 games)
  • Classical: 44.9% win rate (3,620 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (97 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (11,076 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (12,593 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (3,829 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (26 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.8% expected score (264 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (30,044 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (29,517 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (8,362 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 54.2% expected score (95 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 59.1% expected score (542 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (55,843 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (60,663 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (16,327 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.6% expected score (286 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (1,120 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (86,522 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (98,221 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (24,573 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (934 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.2% expected score (784 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (108,640 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (122,434 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (27,236 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.9% expected score (1,255 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 40.0% expected score (325 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (105,703 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (113,182 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (21,694 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (841 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.1% expected score (133 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (71,738 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (46,544 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (7,423 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (165 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (54 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (32,969 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (9,189 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.2% expected score (904 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (5,966 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (343 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.5%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.1M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 48.2% win rate for white (134K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (49.3%) outperforms UltraBullet (47.2%) by 2.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack?

The Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack has a 45.5% (90% CI: 45.0%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 68K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack has a 48.2% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 134K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 211K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.5%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 260K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack has a 47.2% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 242K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 126K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 43K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack has a 46.9% (90% CI: 45.8%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 6.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack has a 47.2% (90% CI: 45.8%-48.6%) win rate for white (3.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.6%-46.9%) win rate for white (509K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.2%) win rate for white (493K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.5%) win rate for white (110K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack has a 49.3% (90% CI: 47.9%-50.6%) win rate for white (3.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Marshall Counterattack is statistically balanced with a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.5%-47.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.