Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line
24K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.7%.
Measured over 24K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 7.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 24K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 24K
- Best context
- 51.6% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Worst context
- 42.8% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 92.1%
- Draws
- 7.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 71.2% at 0-999, 40.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (16 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (45 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (61 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (104 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (182 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (56 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (245 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (566 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (172 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (13 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (394 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (1,510 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (418 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 26.1% expected score (34 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (743 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (3,274 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (885 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 28.7% expected score (57 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (1,176 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (5,295 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (1,073 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (50 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (1,223 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (4,313 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (862 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (855 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (746 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.4% expected score (56 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line scores 47.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.6% and 47.7% — from 24K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 24K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line, Black wins 43.2%, draws 7.9% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 24K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 51.6% (342 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.0% in Blitz (16K games) against 44.6% in Rapid (3.5K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line?
The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line has a sharpness score of 92.1 (decisive), meaning 92.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.7%, draws 0.4% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 119 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 50.2%, draws 2.8% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 342 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.5%, draws 3.3% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 996 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 42.6%, draws 4.9% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.2%, draws 5.4% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.6%, draws 6.6% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 7.6K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.6%, draws 8.0% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 6.4K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 30.1%, draws 29.3% and loses 40.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 48 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 44.9%, draws 9.9% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 43.3%, draws 7.4% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 41.0%, draws 7.2% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 25.8%, draws 12.2% and loses 62.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 31.9%. It rests on 167 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.2% of its games and loses 48.9%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.