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Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line

24K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.2%Range (90% confident): 46.6% – 47.7%Based on 24K games
0%47.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.6% – 47.7%
Outcome Distribution
43.2%7.9%48.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...e5
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line
Analyzen=24K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness92%
Draw Rate7.9%

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line has a 47.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.6% and 47.7%), based on 24K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 16.8% · Classical best · Bullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 70% → 30%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 70.1% win rate (32 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.7% win rate (119 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.2% win rate (342 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.5% win rate (996 games)
  • 1600-1799: 42.6% win rate (2,356 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.2% win rate (4,959 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.6% win rate (7,594 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.6% win rate (6,405 games)
  • 2500+: 30.1% win rate (1,663 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (45%), worst in Classical (26%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 44.9% win rate (4,801 games)
  • Blitz: 43.3% win rate (15,961 games)
  • Rapid: 41.0% win rate (3,537 games)
  • Classical: 25.8% win rate (167 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (16 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (45 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (61 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (104 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (182 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (56 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (245 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (566 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (172 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (13 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (394 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (1,510 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (418 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 26.1% expected score (34 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (743 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (3,274 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (885 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 28.7% expected score (57 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (1,176 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (5,295 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (1,073 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (50 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (1,223 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (4,313 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (862 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (855 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (746 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.4% expected score (56 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 24K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 52.5% win rate for white (2.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (62.0%) outperforms Bullet (45.2%) by 16.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line has a sharpness score of 92.1 (decisive), meaning 92.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line has a 51.9% (90% CI: 44.4%-59.3%) win rate for white, based on 119 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 0.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line has a 47.0% (90% CI: 42.6%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 342 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line has a 51.3% (90% CI: 48.7%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 996 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line has a 52.5% (90% CI: 50.8%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 5.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.8%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 7.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.4%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 6.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 8.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line has a 40.6% (90% CI: 38.6%-42.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 48 moves with a 29.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.0%-46.3%) win rate for white (4.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.9%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.0%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.4%-53.2%) win rate for white (3.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line has a 62.0% (90% CI: 55.8%-68.1%) win rate for white (167 Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.2%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line is statistically favors white with a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.