41K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation has a 49.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.9% and 49.7%), based on 41K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 56% → 36%
Best in Blitz (45%), worst in Classical (29%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 45.1%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 41K rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 47.1% win rate for white (20K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (46.8%) outperforms Rapid (41.9%) by 4.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation has a sharpness score of 89.6 (moderately decisive), meaning 89.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation has a 43.3% (90% CI: 36.1%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 122 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation has a 40.3% (90% CI: 36.5%-44.1%) win rate for white, based on 444 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation has a 45.0% (90% CI: 43.1%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 44.9%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 7.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation has a 42.9% (90% CI: 42.1%-43.7%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 46 moves with a 21.5% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation has a 42.5% (90% CI: 41.6%-43.4%) win rate for white (8.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 14.4%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.3%-47.2%) win rate for white (30K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.5%.
In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation has a 41.9% (90% CI: 40.3%-43.4%) win rate for white (2.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 18.0%.
In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 42.0%-53.7%) win rate for white (194 Lichess games). Draw rate is 23.3%.
The Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation is statistically balanced with a 45.5% (90% CI: 45.1%-45.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.