Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation
41K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.7%.
Measured over 41K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 10.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 41K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 41K
- Best context
- 53.1% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Worst context
- 45.0% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 40 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 89.6%
- Draws
- 10.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 61.2% at 0-999, 42.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 34.2% expected score (8 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (20 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (44 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (62 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (13 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (114 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (272 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (48 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (280 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (1,275 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (160 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (34 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (947 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (5,492 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (668 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.6% expected score (57 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (2,566 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (16,372 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (1,293 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 37.1% expected score (49 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (4,575 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (6,013 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (558 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.7% expected score (40 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation scores 49.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.9% and 49.7% — from 41K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 41K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Black wins 44.0%, draws 10.4% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 41K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 56.8% (444 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.0% in Blitz (30K games) against 49.1% in Rapid (2.7K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation has a sharpness score of 89.6 (moderately decisive), meaning 89.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 51.4%, draws 5.3% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 122 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 53.8%, draws 5.9% and loses 40.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.8%. It rests on 444 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.7%, draws 5.2% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.8%, draws 6.3% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 7.2K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.6%, draws 6.4% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 35.6%, draws 21.5% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 46 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 43.1%, draws 14.4% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 8.5K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.7%, draws 8.5% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 30K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 40.1%, draws 18.0% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 28.9%, draws 23.3% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.6%. It rests on 194 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.0% of its games and loses 45.5%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.