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Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation

375K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.6%

45%60%
Floor52.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.7%.

Measured over 375K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 375K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
375K
Best context
56.6% at 2000-2199 Rapid
Worst context
46.6% at 0-999 Bullet
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.6%
Draws
3.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 47.8% at 0-999, 56.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.1% expected score (32 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (4,085 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (10,571 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (7,739 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (78 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (138 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (7,921 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (13,662 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (7,285 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (286 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 44.6% expected score (202 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (12,626 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (17,177 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (7,373 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (377 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.2% expected score (211 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (21,114 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (21,527 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (6,343 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (450 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 56.8% expected score (221 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (30,892 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (25,103 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (5,249 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (250 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.1% expected score (139 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (37,164 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (28,798 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (3,336 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (89 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 31.1% expected score (46 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (34,942 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (23,709 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (2,126 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (27,156 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (10,328 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (523 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (5,350 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (729 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 67.7% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Continuations (4)
Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Closed Variation
49.5%
Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Advance Variation
50.0%
Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Main Line
47.6%
Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Exchange Variation
53.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation scores 52.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.4% and 52.7% — from 375K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
375K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Black wins 50.9%, draws 3.4% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 375K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 55.0% (61K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.9% in Blitz (152K games) against 50.1% in Rapid (40K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 46.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.7%, draws 2.7% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 38K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.4%, draws 2.8% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 50K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 52.2%, draws 3.0% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 62K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 52.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 70K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 53.0%, draws 3.9% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 61K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 50.4%, draws 4.6% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 38K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 49.8%, draws 6.2% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 6.1K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 47.8%, draws 1.3% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 994 Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 51.6%, draws 2.6% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 181K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 50.8%, draws 4.1% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 152K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 47.9%, draws 4.4% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 40K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 45.6%, draws 4.2% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 50.9% of its games and loses 45.8%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.