TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line

1.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score48.3%Range (90% confident): 48.2% – 48.4%Based on 1.1M games
0%48.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.2% – 48.4%
Outcome Distribution
45.3%5.9%48.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Bd7
Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line
Analyzen=1.1M
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.9%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line has a 48.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.2% and 48.4%), based on 1.1M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.2% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 51% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.2% win rate (13,118 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.0% win rate (37,687 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.5% win rate (85,130 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.7% win rate (146,389 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.9% win rate (197,108 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.4% win rate (230,660 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.6% win rate (201,620 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.7% win rate (165,874 games)
  • 2500+: 39.3% win rate (44,653 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 45.3% win rate (428 games)
  • Bullet: 45.8% win rate (326,400 games)
  • Blitz: 44.9% win rate (623,831 games)
  • Rapid: 45.6% win rate (162,004 games)
  • Classical: 46.6% win rate (9,576 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.2% expected score (24 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (4,240 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (5,783 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (3,014 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (57 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (65 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (13,042 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (18,129 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (6,238 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (213 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.9% expected score (97 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (24,831 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (45,298 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (14,364 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (540 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.7% expected score (136 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (36,892 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (79,673 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (27,823 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (1,865 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 40.5% expected score (51 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (48,030 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (109,914 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (36,344 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (2,769 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (41 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (54,717 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (136,334 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (36,808 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.1% expected score (2,760 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (51,206 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (123,702 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (25,625 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (1,081 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (64,448 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (90,325 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (10,817 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (278 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (28,994 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (14,673 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.6% expected score (971 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 56.9% expected score (13 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.7%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.1M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.7% win rate for white (45K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.9%) outperforms Classical (44.8%) by 5.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line?

The Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line has a 45.0% (90% CI: 44.3%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line has a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 85K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 146K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.5%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 197K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 231K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 202K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 166K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 45K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 9.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line has a 53.0% (90% CI: 49.0%-56.9%) win rate for white (428 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.0%) win rate for white (326K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.6%-48.8%) win rate for white (624K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line has a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.6%) win rate for white (162K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line has a 44.8% (90% CI: 44.0%-45.7%) win rate for white (9.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.5%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line is statistically balanced with a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.7%-48.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.