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Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line

1.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.3%

45%55%
Floor48.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.4%.

Measured over 1.1M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 5.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.1M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.1M
Best context
54.5% at 0-999 Bullet
Worst context
40.6% at 2500+ Rapid
Average game length
37 moves
Games that end decisively
94.1%
Draws
5.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.2% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 52.0% at 0-999, 44.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.2% expected score (24 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (4,240 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (5,783 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (3,014 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (57 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (65 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (13,042 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (18,129 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (6,238 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (213 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.9% expected score (97 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (24,831 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (45,298 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (14,364 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (540 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.7% expected score (136 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (36,892 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (79,673 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (27,823 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (1,865 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 40.5% expected score (51 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (48,030 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (109,914 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (36,344 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (2,769 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (41 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (54,717 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (136,334 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (36,808 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.1% expected score (2,760 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (51,206 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (123,702 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (25,625 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (1,081 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (64,448 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (90,325 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (10,817 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (278 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (28,994 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (14,673 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.6% expected score (971 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 56.9% expected score (13 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line scores 48.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.2% and 48.4% — from 1.1M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.1M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line, Black wins 45.3%, draws 5.9% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 1.1M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 53.1% (13K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 48.1% in Blitz (624K games) against 49.1% in Rapid (162K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line?

The Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 51.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 38K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.5%, draws 4.0% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 85K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.7%, draws 4.7% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 146K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.9%, draws 5.4% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 197K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.4%, draws 6.0% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 231K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.6%, draws 6.5% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 202K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.7%, draws 7.4% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 166K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 39.3%, draws 9.0% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 45K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 45.3%, draws 1.7% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 428 Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 45.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 326K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.9%, draws 6.4% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 624K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 45.6%, draws 7.1% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 162K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 46.6%, draws 8.5% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 9.6K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.3% of its games and loses 48.8%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.