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Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation

12K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

57.0%

45%65%
Floor56.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 57.7%.

Measured over 12K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 12K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
12K
Best context
59.6% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Worst context
51.8% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.6%
Draws
3.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 53.4% at 0-999, 46.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 67.7% expected score (75 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 63.7% expected score (64 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (198 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (191 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 65.4% expected score (44 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 63.7% expected score (371 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (468 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 58.2% expected score (109 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.9% expected score (1,170 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (1,041 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (104 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 58.9% expected score (824 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (1,112 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (88 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 59.6% expected score (2,296 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (1,068 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (202 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (1,259 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (740 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (98 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (108 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (42 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation scores 57.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 56.2% and 57.7% — from 12K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
12K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation, Black wins 55.3%, draws 3.4% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.0%. It rests on 12K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation performs best for Black at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 66.2% (156 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 55.8% in Blitz (4.7K games) against 56.7% in Rapid (668 games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 64.4%, draws 3.5% and loses 32.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 66.2%. It rests on 156 Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 56.8%, draws 2.6% and loses 40.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.2%. It rests on 434 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 57.7%, draws 2.8% and loses 39.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.1%. It rests on 953 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 55.8%, draws 2.1% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.9%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 55.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.0%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 56.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 39.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.4%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 50.9%, draws 4.8% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 44.7%, draws 7.4% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 154 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 56.7%, draws 2.4% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.9%. It rests on 6.3K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 53.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 53.5%, draws 6.3% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.7%. It rests on 668 Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 55.3% of its games and loses 41.4%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.