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Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation

12K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Black Expected Score57.0%Range (90% confident): 56.2% – 57.7%Based on 12K games
0%57.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 56.2% – 57.7%
Outcome Distribution
55.3%3.4%41.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Qb6
Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation
Analyzen=12K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a 57.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 56.2% and 57.7%), based on 12K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 57% → 45%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 56.9% win rate (24 games)
  • 1000-1199: 64.4% win rate (156 games)
  • 1200-1399: 56.8% win rate (434 games)
  • 1400-1599: 57.7% win rate (953 games)
  • 1600-1799: 55.8% win rate (2,320 games)
  • 1800-1999: 55.1% win rate (2,028 games)
  • 2000-2199: 56.7% win rate (3,570 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.9% win rate (2,098 games)
  • 2500+: 44.7% win rate (154 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (64%), worst in Classical (51%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 63.6% win rate (4 games)
  • Bullet: 56.7% win rate (6,312 games)
  • Blitz: 53.6% win rate (4,736 games)
  • Rapid: 53.5% win rate (668 games)
  • Classical: 51.4% win rate (17 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 67.7% expected score (75 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 63.7% expected score (64 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (198 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (191 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 65.4% expected score (44 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 63.7% expected score (371 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (468 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 58.2% expected score (109 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.9% expected score (1,170 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (1,041 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (104 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 58.9% expected score (824 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (1,112 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (88 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 59.6% expected score (2,296 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (1,068 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (202 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (1,259 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (740 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (98 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (108 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (42 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a 41.4% (90% CI: 40.6%-42.1%) win rate for white, based on 12K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 44.3% win rate for white (2.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (42.1%) outperforms Rapid (40.1%) by 2.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a 32.1% (90% CI: 26.1%-38.3%) win rate for white, based on 156 Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a 40.5% (90% CI: 36.7%-44.4%) win rate for white, based on 434 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a 39.5% (90% CI: 37.0%-42.2%) win rate for white, based on 953 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a 42.1% (90% CI: 40.4%-43.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a 41.2% (90% CI: 39.4%-43.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a 39.9% (90% CI: 38.6%-41.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a 44.3% (90% CI: 42.5%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 41.4%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 154 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a 40.9% (90% CI: 39.9%-42.0%) win rate for white (6.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a 42.1% (90% CI: 40.9%-43.3%) win rate for white (4.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation has a 40.1% (90% CI: 37.0%-43.2%) win rate for white (668 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Gaw-Paw Variation is slightly favors black with a 41.4% (90% CI: 40.6%-42.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.