Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation
35K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
40.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 40.6%.
Measured over 35K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 35K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 35K
- Best context
- 55.4% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Worst context
- 32.6% at 1000-1199 Rapid
- Average game length
- 30 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.6%
- Draws
- 3.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 36.5% at 0-999, 41.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.2% expected score (25 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 38.5% expected score (1,809 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 37.5% expected score (3,102 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 33.6% expected score (2,392 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 24.7% expected score (38 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.9% expected score (33 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 39.1% expected score (1,373 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 38.4% expected score (3,111 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 32.6% expected score (1,237 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 24.3% expected score (86 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 33.6% expected score (47 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 39.8% expected score (1,445 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 41.2% expected score (3,581 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (1,304 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 31.2% expected score (105 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 29.7% expected score (28 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (1,791 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 41.4% expected score (2,164 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 34.5% expected score (1,211 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 24.4% expected score (151 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (1,271 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 40.6% expected score (1,479 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (559 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.3% expected score (165 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (1,396 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (2,210 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 39.4% expected score (270 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.3% expected score (171 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (476 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (960 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (78 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (284 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (700 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (25 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (87 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (137 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation scores 40.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 39.7% and 40.6% — from 35K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 35K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation, Black wins 38.4%, draws 3.4% and loses 58.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.2%. It rests on 35K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 53.3% (1.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 41.5% in Blitz (17K games) against 35.2% in Rapid (7.1K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 34.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 61.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.4%. It rests on 7.4K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 35.7%, draws 2.8% and loses 61.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.1%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 38.5%, draws 2.4% and loses 59.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.7%. It rests on 6.5K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 39.1%, draws 2.7% and loses 58.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.5%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 40.8%, draws 3.0% and loses 56.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.3%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 54.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.7%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.5%, draws 5.1% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 51.0%, draws 4.6% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 36.7%, draws 29.7% and loses 33.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 226 Lichess games, which average 58 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 34.7%, draws 1.0% and loses 64.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.2%. It rests on 150 Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 41.0%, draws 2.0% and loses 57.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.0%. It rests on 9.9K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 39.5%, draws 4.0% and loses 56.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.5%. It rests on 17K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 33.1%, draws 4.1% and loses 62.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.2%. It rests on 7.1K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 29.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 66.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 32.0%. It rests on 719 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 38.4% of its games and loses 58.1%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.