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Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with Nge2

22K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.8%

45%55%
Floor48.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.4%.

Measured over 22K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 6.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 22K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
22K
Best context
49.8% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Worst context
46.0% at 1600-1799 Blitz
Average game length
38 moves
Games that end decisively
93.9%
Draws
6.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.9% at 0-999, 42.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 36.1% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (47 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (58 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (101 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (166 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (53 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (293 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (558 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (94 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (1,016 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (2,408 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (215 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (2,226 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (4,692 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (460 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 65.7% expected score (24 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (3,984 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (3,153 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (231 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (1,522 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (184 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 29.0% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with Nge2 PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with Nge2 scores 48.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.3% and 49.4% — from 22K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
22K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with Nge2 win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with Nge2, Black wins 45.7%, draws 6.1% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 22K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with Nge2 perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with Nge2 performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 49.6% (7.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with Nge2 better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with Nge2 scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 48.7% in Blitz (11K games) against 51.0% in Rapid (1.1K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with Nge2?

The Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with Nge2 has a sharpness score of 93.9 (decisive), meaning 93.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with Nge2 win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 50.2%, draws 2.8% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 123 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with Nge2 win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 326 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with Nge2 win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 959 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with Nge2 win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.4%, draws 5.7% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with Nge2 win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.2%, draws 6.6% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 7.4K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with Nge2 win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.3%, draws 6.5% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 7.4K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with Nge2 win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 46.1%, draws 6.0% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with Nge2 win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.4%, draws 4.6% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 9.2K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with Nge2 win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 45.1%, draws 7.1% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with Nge2 win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 46.2%, draws 9.6% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with Nge2 a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Closed, Botvinnik Defense, with Nge2 is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.7% of its games and loses 48.2%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.