Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Abrahams Variation
64K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.3%.
Measured over 64K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 64K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 64K
- Best context
- 55.5% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 45.1% at 1600-1799 Rapid
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.7%
- Draws
- 3.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 49.4% at 0-999, 55.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (50 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (82 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (31 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (204 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (236 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (84 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (576 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (915 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (187 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (1,326 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (3,004 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (680 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 39.6% expected score (56 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (2,346 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (6,464 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (1,761 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (87 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (4,306 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (13,889 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (1,794 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.3% expected score (137 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (3,538 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (9,615 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (1,142 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (63 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (4,580 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (5,528 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (159 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 31.8% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (912 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (370 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Abrahams Variation scores 51.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.6% and 51.3% — from 64K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 64K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Abrahams Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Abrahams Variation, White wins 49.3%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 64K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Abrahams Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Abrahams Variation performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 53.6% (10K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Abrahams Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Abrahams Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.1% in Blitz (40K games) against 47.3% in Rapid (5.8K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Abrahams Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Abrahams Variation has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Abrahams Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 45.3%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 163 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Abrahams Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 50.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 525 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Abrahams Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 49.8%, draws 2.1% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Abrahams Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 48.1%, draws 2.2% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Abrahams Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 46.5%, draws 2.5% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Abrahams Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 49.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Abrahams Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 50.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Abrahams Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 51.3%, draws 4.6% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Abrahams Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 51.6%, draws 5.5% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Abrahams Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 50.9%, draws 2.1% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Abrahams Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 49.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 40K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Abrahams Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 45.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Abrahams Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 45.0%, draws 4.4% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 351 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Abrahams Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Wing Gambit, Abrahams Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.3% of its games and loses 47.4%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.