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Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation

33K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score48.8%Range (90% confident): 48.3% – 49.2%Based on 33K games
0%48.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.3% – 49.2%
Outcome Distribution
45.3%6.9%47.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Bc5
Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation
Analyzen=33K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate6.9%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a 48.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.3% and 49.2%), based on 33K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 52% → 37%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.8% win rate (40 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.2% win rate (130 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.8% win rate (420 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.2% win rate (1,069 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.0% win rate (2,417 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.6% win rate (4,028 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.4% win rate (7,029 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.3% win rate (12,682 games)
  • 2500+: 36.6% win rate (5,161 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Classical (40%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 45.3% win rate (6,674 games)
  • Blitz: 45.6% win rate (22,378 games)
  • Rapid: 43.9% win rate (3,627 games)
  • Classical: 39.5% win rate (296 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 59.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (18 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (49 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 40.8% expected score (69 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 57.4% expected score (127 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (228 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (63 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (232 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (632 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (191 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (380 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (1,485 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (513 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 63.6% expected score (39 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (529 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (2,539 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (855 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (105 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (953 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (5,075 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (916 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (85 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (2,098 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (9,624 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (923 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.0% expected score (37 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (2,286 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.0% expected score (2,708 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.8% expected score (153 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 40.3% expected score (14 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.4%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 33K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 48.7% win rate for white (13K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (48.4%) outperforms Classical (48.6%) by -0.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a sharpness score of 93.1 (decisive), meaning 93.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 45.7%-60.0%) win rate for white, based on 130 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a 45.0% (90% CI: 41.0%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 420 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 45.6%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 45.6%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 46.7%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.5%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.0%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.4%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 5.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 15.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 44.6%-46.6%) win rate for white (6.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.9%) win rate for white (22K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.0%-49.8%) win rate for white (3.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 43.8%-53.3%) win rate for white (296 Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.9%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.4%-48.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.