Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation
33K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.2%.
Measured over 33K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 6.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 33K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 33K
- Best context
- 51.5% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 42.0% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 38 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.1%
- Draws
- 6.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 44.5% at 0-999, 41.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 59.3% expected score (20 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (18 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (49 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 40.8% expected score (69 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 57.4% expected score (127 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (228 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (63 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (232 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (632 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (191 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (380 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (1,485 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (513 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 63.6% expected score (39 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (529 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (2,539 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (855 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (105 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (953 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (5,075 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (916 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (85 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (2,098 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (9,624 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (923 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.0% expected score (37 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (2,286 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.0% expected score (2,708 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.8% expected score (153 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 40.3% expected score (14 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation scores 48.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.3% and 49.2% — from 33K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 33K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation, Black wins 45.3%, draws 6.9% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 33K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 51.0% (7.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.6% in Blitz (22K games) against 47.8% in Rapid (3.6K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation has a sharpness score of 93.1 (decisive), meaning 93.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.2%, draws 1.9% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 130 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 420 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.0%, draws 4.7% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.4%, draws 5.1% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 7.0K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.3%, draws 6.0% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 36.6%, draws 15.8% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games, which average 45 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 45.3%, draws 9.1% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 6.7K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.6%, draws 6.0% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 22K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 43.9%, draws 7.7% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 39.5%, draws 11.9% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 296 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Polugaevsky Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.3% of its games and loses 47.8%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.