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Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation

447K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score51.1%Range (90% confident): 50.9% – 51.2%Based on 447K games
0%51.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.9% – 51.2%
Outcome Distribution
49.3%3.5%47.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...a6
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation
Analyzen=447K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.5%

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 51.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.9% and 51.2%), based on 447K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 53% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 53.2% win rate (12,129 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.7% win rate (37,154 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.1% win rate (70,295 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.9% win rate (99,574 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.0% win rate (98,797 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.2% win rate (71,579 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.2% win rate (40,422 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.1% win rate (15,487 games)
  • 2500+: 43.4% win rate (1,546 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (51%), worst in UltraBullet (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 45.7% win rate (203 games)
  • Bullet: 49.8% win rate (99,187 games)
  • Blitz: 48.9% win rate (244,142 games)
  • Rapid: 49.5% win rate (99,212 games)
  • Classical: 51.0% win rate (4,239 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (5,377 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (5,213 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (1,515 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 71.7% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (35 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (11,766 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (20,302 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (4,986 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 63.6% expected score (65 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (46 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (13,977 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (41,712 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (14,193 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (367 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.1% expected score (32 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (17,585 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (53,751 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (26,934 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (1,272 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 37.8% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (17,022 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (52,826 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (27,122 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (1,808 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.1% expected score (48 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (13,977 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (39,095 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (17,827 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (632 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 29.3% expected score (13 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (10,994 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (23,867 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (5,481 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.5% expected score (67 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (7,180 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (7,156 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (1,137 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (1,309 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.1% expected score (220 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.2% expected score (17 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Continuations (10)
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Yerevan System
48.7%
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Taimanov Line
47.1%
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Steiner Line
50.9%
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line
47.3%
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Quiet System
49.6%
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line
51.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 447K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.9% win rate for white (1.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (47.9%) outperforms Classical (44.2%) by 3.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 44.2%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 37K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 70K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 100K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 99K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 72K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.7%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 40K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.8%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 48.8%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 46.3%-57.8%) win rate for white (203 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.1%) win rate for white (99K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.6%) win rate for white (244K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 46.0%-46.6%) win rate for white (99K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a 44.2% (90% CI: 43.0%-45.5%) win rate for white (4.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.2% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.