Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation
447K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.2%.
Measured over 447K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 447K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 447K
- Best context
- 55.7% at 1400-1599 Classical
- Worst context
- 47.4% at 2500+ Bullet
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.5%
- Draws
- 3.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 57.7% at 0-999, 42.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (5,377 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (5,213 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (1,515 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 71.7% expected score (17 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (35 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (11,766 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (20,302 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (4,986 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 63.6% expected score (65 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (46 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (13,977 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (41,712 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (14,193 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (367 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.1% expected score (32 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (17,585 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (53,751 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (26,934 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (1,272 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 37.8% expected score (19 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (17,022 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (52,826 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (27,122 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (1,808 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.1% expected score (48 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (13,977 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (39,095 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (17,827 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (632 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 29.3% expected score (13 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (10,994 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (23,867 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (5,481 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.5% expected score (67 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (7,180 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (7,156 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (1,137 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (1,309 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.1% expected score (220 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.2% expected score (17 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation scores 51.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.9% and 51.2% — from 447K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 447K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Black wins 49.3%, draws 3.5% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 447K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 54.2% (12K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.8% in Blitz (244K games) against 51.6% in Rapid (99K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 53.2%, draws 1.9% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 50.7%, draws 2.3% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 37K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 50.1%, draws 2.9% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 70K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 100K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 99K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 72K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.2%, draws 4.8% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 40K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.1%, draws 5.5% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 43.4%, draws 5.7% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 45.7%, draws 2.2% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 203 Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 49.8%, draws 2.3% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 99K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 48.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 244K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 49.5%, draws 4.2% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 99K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 51.0%, draws 4.7% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.3% of its games and loses 47.2%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.