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Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line

34K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.3%Range (90% confident): 46.8% – 47.7%Based on 34K games
0%47.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.8% – 47.7%
Outcome Distribution
45.3%3.9%50.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...b5
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line
Analyzen=34K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.9%

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line has a 47.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.8% and 47.7%), based on 34K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 50% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.6% win rate (350 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.9% win rate (1,025 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.7% win rate (3,048 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.9% win rate (5,412 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.9% win rate (8,425 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.9% win rate (7,688 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.0% win rate (4,438 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.3% win rate (2,970 games)
  • 2500+: 42.7% win rate (538 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (61%), worst in Rapid (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 61.0% win rate (19 games)
  • Bullet: 46.0% win rate (7,888 games)
  • Blitz: 45.4% win rate (19,422 games)
  • Rapid: 43.9% win rate (6,321 games)
  • Classical: 45.4% win rate (244 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (125 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (181 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (44 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (330 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (596 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (97 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (894 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (1,679 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (463 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (1,241 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (2,938 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (1,176 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (55 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (986 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (5,452 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (1,861 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (125 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (1,156 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (4,476 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (2,014 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (40 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (1,197 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (2,661 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (558 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (1,486 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (1,374 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (108 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (473 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 30.5% expected score (65 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 34K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 52.0% win rate for white (4.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (51.8%) outperforms Classical (50.7%) by 1.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line has a 47.7% (90% CI: 43.3%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 350 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line has a 51.8% (90% CI: 49.2%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.2%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line has a 50.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 5.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.4%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 8.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line has a 50.8% (90% CI: 49.8%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 7.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line has a 52.0% (90% CI: 50.8%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 4.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line has a 51.3% (90% CI: 49.8%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line has a 46.8% (90% CI: 43.3%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 538 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 10.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.8%) win rate for white (7.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.0%) win rate for white (19K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.8%) win rate for white (6.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line has a 50.7% (90% CI: 45.5%-55.9%) win rate for white (244 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Venice System, Ljubojevic Line is statistically favors white with a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.