Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line
43K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.7%.
Measured over 43K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 43K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 43K
- Best context
- 51.3% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Worst context
- 44.8% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Average game length
- 38 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.2%
- Draws
- 5.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 41.4% at 0-999, 37.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (40 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 60.9% expected score (17 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (127 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (137 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (19 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (461 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (689 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (104 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (1,244 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (3,184 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (506 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 59.9% expected score (34 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (1,832 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (8,619 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (1,587 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.9% expected score (129 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (2,505 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (9,037 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (2,312 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.5% expected score (100 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (2,471 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (4,837 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (1,108 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (23 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (911 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (495 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 28.6% expected score (59 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line scores 49.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.9% and 49.7% — from 43K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 43K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line, Black wins 46.4%, draws 5.8% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 43K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 50.9% (12K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.5% in Blitz (27K games) against 48.2% in Rapid (5.7K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line?
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line has a sharpness score of 94.2 (decisive), meaning 94.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 50.4%, draws 1.9% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 283 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.4%, draws 4.4% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.2%, draws 5.4% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.1%, draws 6.3% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.5%, draws 6.6% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 8.4K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 41.5%, draws 7.7% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.4%, draws 4.1% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 9.6K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.5%, draws 5.9% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 27K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.2%, draws 7.9% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 48.7%, draws 11.1% and loses 40.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 291 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.4% of its games and loses 47.8%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.