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Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line

43K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.3%Range (90% confident): 48.9% – 49.7%Based on 43K games
0%49.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.9% – 49.7%
Outcome Distribution
46.4%5.8%47.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
8...Be6
Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line
Analyzen=43K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.8%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line has a 49.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.9% and 49.7%), based on 43K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.3% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 52% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.0% win rate (11 games)
  • 1000-1199: 56.4% win rate (65 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.4% win rate (283 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.3% win rate (1,257 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.4% win rate (4,968 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.2% win rate (12,167 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.1% win rate (13,954 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.5% win rate (8,439 games)
  • 2500+: 41.5% win rate (1,466 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (49%), worst in Rapid (44%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 47.4% win rate (9,600 games)
  • Blitz: 46.5% win rate (27,016 games)
  • Rapid: 44.2% win rate (5,703 games)
  • Classical: 48.7% win rate (291 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (40 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 60.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (127 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (137 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (461 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (689 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (104 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (1,244 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (3,184 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (506 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 59.9% expected score (34 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (1,832 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (8,619 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (1,587 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.9% expected score (129 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (2,505 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (9,037 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (2,312 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.5% expected score (100 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (2,471 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (4,837 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (1,108 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (23 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (911 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (495 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 28.6% expected score (59 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.4%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 43K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 49.9% win rate for white (8.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.5%) outperforms Classical (40.2%) by 8.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line has a sharpness score of 94.2 (decisive), meaning 94.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line has a 47.6% (90% CI: 42.8%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 283 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line has a 47.6% (90% CI: 45.2%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.0%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 5.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line has a 46.4% (90% CI: 45.6%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.9%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 8.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line has a 50.8% (90% CI: 48.7%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.6%-49.3%) win rate for white (9.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.0%-48.0%) win rate for white (27K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line has a 47.9% (90% CI: 46.8%-49.0%) win rate for white (5.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.9%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line has a 40.2% (90% CI: 35.5%-44.9%) win rate for white (291 Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.1%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Opocensky Variation, Modern Line is statistically balanced with a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.4%-48.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.