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Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line

54K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.0%Range (90% confident): 46.7% – 47.4%Based on 54K games
0%47.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.7% – 47.4%
Outcome Distribution
44.9%4.1%50.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
8...Qc7
Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line
Analyzen=54K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.1%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line has a 47.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.7% and 47.4%), based on 54K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 56% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 55.6% win rate (3 games)
  • 1000-1199: 55.1% win rate (23 games)
  • 1200-1399: 56.4% win rate (120 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.4% win rate (690 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.7% win rate (3,482 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.9% win rate (12,952 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.9% win rate (21,288 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.5% win rate (14,287 games)
  • 2500+: 40.3% win rate (1,461 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (48%), worst in Classical (41%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 47.8% win rate (13,251 games)
  • Blitz: 44.6% win rate (34,890 games)
  • Rapid: 40.9% win rate (5,811 games)
  • Classical: 40.6% win rate (354 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 65.6% expected score (66 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (42 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (343 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (314 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 33.1% expected score (28 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (1,001 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (2,196 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (250 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (35 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (2,536 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (9,009 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (1,277 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.0% expected score (130 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (3,687 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (14,678 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (2,778 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 37.1% expected score (145 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (4,475 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (8,344 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.8% expected score (1,431 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.8% expected score (37 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (1,130 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.4% expected score (300 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (30 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 54K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 54.5% win rate for white (1.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (54.0%) outperforms Classical (49.9%) by 4.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line has a 38.3% (90% CI: 31.2%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 120 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line has a 47.5% (90% CI: 44.4%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 690 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line has a 50.0% (90% CI: 48.6%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.2%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line has a 54.5% (90% CI: 52.3%-56.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.8%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.6%) win rate for white (35K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line has a 54.0% (90% CI: 52.9%-55.1%) win rate for white (5.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line has a 49.9% (90% CI: 45.6%-54.3%) win rate for white (354 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.4%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Traditional Line is statistically favors white with a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.