Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations
23K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.7%.
Measured over 23K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 8.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 23K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 23K
- Best context
- 51.7% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 44.7% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Average game length
- 39 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 91.6%
- Draws
- 8.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 78.6% at 0-999, 45.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (18 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (40 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 37.4% expected score (46 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (102 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (153 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.2% expected score (38 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (179 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (443 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (64 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (13 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (384 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (1,279 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (248 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.5% expected score (33 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (811 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (3,548 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (517 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.1% expected score (57 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (2,141 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (7,872 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (568 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (21 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (2,382 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (2,278 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (154 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 43.5% expected score (29 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations scores 49.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.6% and 49.7% — from 23K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 23K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations, Black wins 45.0%, draws 8.4% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 23K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 50.2% (4.9K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.0% in Blitz (16K games) against 46.6% in Rapid (1.6K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations?
The Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations has a sharpness score of 91.6 (decisive), meaning 91.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 42.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 294 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.0%, draws 5.1% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 699 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.5%, draws 5.5% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.9%, draws 6.5% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.0%, draws 6.5% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 40.1%, draws 16.4% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 44.9%, draws 10.9% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 6.1K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.6%, draws 6.9% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 41.0%, draws 11.2% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 28.0%, draws 28.6% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.3%. It rests on 154 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.0% of its games and loses 46.7%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.