23K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations has a 49.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.6% and 49.7%), based on 23K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 71% → 40%
Best in Blitz (46%), worst in Classical (28%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.2%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 23K rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 53.6% win rate for white (294 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (47.6%) outperforms Classical (43.4%) by 4.2%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations has a sharpness score of 91.6 (decisive), meaning 91.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations has a 53.6% (90% CI: 48.9%-58.4%) win rate for white, based on 294 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations has a 49.9% (90% CI: 46.8%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 699 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations has a 48.0% (90% CI: 46.1%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.4%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.7%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations has a 43.5% (90% CI: 42.3%-44.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 16.4% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations has a 44.2% (90% CI: 43.2%-45.3%) win rate for white (6.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.9%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.9%-48.2%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.
In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations has a 47.8% (90% CI: 45.7%-49.9%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.2%.
In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations has a 43.4% (90% CI: 36.9%-50.0%) win rate for white (154 Lichess games). Draw rate is 28.6%.
The Sicilian Defense: Richter-Rauzer Variation, Neo-Modern Variation, Early Deviations is statistically balanced with a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.2%-47.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.