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Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation

281K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.0%

45%55%
Floor48.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.2%.

Measured over 281K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 281K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
281K
Best context
57.7% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
39.7% at 1000-1199 Bullet
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
95.5%
Draws
4.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 38.8% at 0-999, 60.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 37.1% expected score (215 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 40.6% expected score (94 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.6% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 39.7% expected score (762 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (511 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (98 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (2,105 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (2,651 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (526 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (4,778 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (8,937 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1,801 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 32.7% expected score (97 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (7,902 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (22,991 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (5,158 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (392 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 76.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (11,829 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (38,990 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (8,741 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.2% expected score (457 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (16,881 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (45,141 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (7,015 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.2% expected score (272 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (26,024 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (45,380 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (3,720 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.7% expected score (78 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (11,592 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (5,029 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.8% expected score (303 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 72.3% expected score (12 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation scores 49.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.9% and 49.2% — from 281K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
281K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation, White wins 46.8%, draws 4.5% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 281K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 53.4% (17K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 49.6% in Blitz (170K games) against 50.6% in Rapid (27K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 37.5%, draws 1.1% and loses 61.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.1%. It rests on 325 Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 44.1%, draws 1.6% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 45.3%, draws 2.5% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 46.0%, draws 2.7% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 45.7%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 45.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 60K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 46.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 69K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 48.3%, draws 5.4% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 75K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 49.9%, draws 6.9% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 45.7%, draws 3.2% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 82K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 47.2%, draws 4.8% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 170K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 47.6%, draws 6.0% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 27K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 47.8%, draws 8.0% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Kan Variation, Modern Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 46.8% of its games and loses 48.8%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.