TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal

504K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score52.1%Range (90% confident): 52.0% – 52.3%Based on 504K games
0%52.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.0% – 52.3%
Outcome Distribution
49.9%4.3%45.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Nf6
Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal
Analyzen=504K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.3%

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal has a 52.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 52.0% and 52.3%), based on 504K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 53% → 44%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.6% win rate (2,266 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.9% win rate (7,633 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.3% win rate (23,383 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.4% win rate (55,099 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.5% win rate (96,667 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.6% win rate (129,462 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.5% win rate (114,457 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.1% win rate (64,595 games)
  • 2500+: 43.7% win rate (10,849 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (55%), worst in Blitz (49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 55.4% win rate (236 games)
  • Bullet: 50.6% win rate (176,313 games)
  • Blitz: 49.4% win rate (265,671 games)
  • Rapid: 50.3% win rate (59,643 games)
  • Classical: 52.4% win rate (2,548 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (1,016 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (878 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (365 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (3,283 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (3,249 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (1,075 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 40.4% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 63.9% expected score (31 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (9,354 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (10,899 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (3,017 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 72.2% expected score (82 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 60.0% expected score (64 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (20,045 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (27,202 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (7,444 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.3% expected score (344 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 60.5% expected score (56 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (29,725 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (52,625 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (13,473 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.2% expected score (788 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.5% expected score (41 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (36,355 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (74,601 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (17,600 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (865 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.1% expected score (24 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (38,300 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (63,314 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (12,435 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (384 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (29,905 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (30,551 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (4,068 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.8% expected score (66 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (8,330 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (2,352 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (166 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.6%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 504K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 48.6% win rate for white (11K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (46.3%) outperforms UltraBullet (43.2%) by 3.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal?

The Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal has a 44.4% (90% CI: 42.7%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.0%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 7.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal has a 45.3% (90% CI: 44.7%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.4%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 55K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 97K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.9%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 129K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal has a 45.5% (90% CI: 45.3%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 114K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal has a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.3%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 65K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.8%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal has a 43.2% (90% CI: 37.9%-48.5%) win rate for white (236 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal has a 46.3% (90% CI: 46.1%-46.5%) win rate for white (176K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.6%-46.0%) win rate for white (266K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal has a 44.2% (90% CI: 43.9%-44.5%) win rate for white (60K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal has a 40.9% (90% CI: 39.3%-42.5%) win rate for white (2.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: French Variation, Normal is slightly favors black with a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.6%-45.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.