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Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation

409K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.0%Range (90% confident): 46.8% – 47.1%Based on 409K games
0%47.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.8% – 47.1%
Outcome Distribution
45.1%3.8%51.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...b6
Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation
Analyzen=409K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation has a 47.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.8% and 47.1%), based on 409K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 43% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 43.3% win rate (21,254 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.6% win rate (30,988 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.7% win rate (47,477 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.5% win rate (74,823 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.4% win rate (83,488 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.0% win rate (82,240 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.5% win rate (41,985 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.7% win rate (22,074 games)
  • 2500+: 38.8% win rate (4,272 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (47%), worst in Classical (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.2% win rate (631 games)
  • Bullet: 46.6% win rate (117,799 games)
  • Blitz: 44.9% win rate (227,406 games)
  • Rapid: 42.9% win rate (60,386 games)
  • Classical: 41.0% win rate (2,379 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.6% expected score (68 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (6,558 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (10,315 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (4,268 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (45 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (130 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (9,640 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (15,491 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5,584 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.5% expected score (143 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (142 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (13,432 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (25,665 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (7,943 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (295 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.9% expected score (137 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (19,698 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (42,969 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (11,453 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (566 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.1% expected score (74 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (20,148 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (47,335 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (14,978 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (953 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (64 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (20,221 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (51,088 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (10,545 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.2% expected score (322 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (13,975 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (23,398 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (4,563 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (38 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (10,861 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (10,230 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.5% expected score (973 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (3,266 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (915 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (79 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (12 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 409K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 53.6% win rate for white (21K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (52.7%) outperforms UltraBullet (50.7%) by 2.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation has a 53.6% (90% CI: 53.0%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.0%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 31K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 47K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 75K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 83K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 82K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 48.7%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 11.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 47.4%-53.9%) win rate for white (631 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.0%) win rate for white (118K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.2%) win rate for white (227K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.3%-53.0%) win rate for white (60K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation has a 53.9% (90% CI: 52.2%-55.6%) win rate for white (2.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.2% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.