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Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation

409K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.0%

40%55%
Floor46.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.1%.

Measured over 409K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 409K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
409K
Best context
49.2% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Worst context
40.5% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.2%
Draws
3.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 47.6% at 0-999, 45.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.6% expected score (68 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (6,558 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (10,315 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (4,268 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (45 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (130 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (9,640 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (15,491 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5,584 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.5% expected score (143 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (142 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (13,432 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (25,665 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (7,943 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (295 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.9% expected score (137 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (19,698 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (42,969 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (11,453 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (566 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.1% expected score (74 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (20,148 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (47,335 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (14,978 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (953 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (64 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (20,221 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (51,088 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (10,545 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.2% expected score (322 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (13,975 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (23,398 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (4,563 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (38 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (10,861 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (10,230 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.5% expected score (973 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (3,266 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (915 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (79 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (12 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation scores 47.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.8% and 47.1% — from 409K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
409K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation, Black wins 45.1%, draws 3.8% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 409K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 48.1% (22K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.0% in Blitz (227K games) against 45.1% in Rapid (60K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 43.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.6%, draws 2.9% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 31K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 47K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.5%, draws 3.2% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 75K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 83K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.0%, draws 4.3% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 82K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.5%, draws 4.4% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.7%, draws 4.8% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 38.8%, draws 11.2% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 47.2%, draws 2.1% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 631 Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.6%, draws 2.7% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 118K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 227K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 42.9%, draws 4.4% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 60K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 41.0%, draws 5.1% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.6%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Katalimov Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.1% of its games and loses 51.2%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.