Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Bird Variation
25K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.2%.
Measured over 25K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 25K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 25K
- Best context
- 54.3% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Worst context
- 47.0% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.7%
- Draws
- 5.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 78.6% at 0-999, 42.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (46 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (33 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (303 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (214 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (18 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (766 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (1,220 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (146 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (1,632 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (3,792 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (571 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.0% expected score (26 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (2,402 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (4,720 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (889 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 34.3% expected score (24 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (2,508 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (3,764 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.6% expected score (459 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (701 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (328 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (23 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Bird Variation scores 48.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.1% and 49.2% — from 25K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 25K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Bird Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Bird Variation, Black wins 46.0%, draws 5.3% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 25K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Bird Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Bird Variation performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 51.1% (2.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Bird Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Bird Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.8% in Blitz (14K games) against 46.4% in Rapid (2.1K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Bird Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Bird Variation has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Bird Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.3%, draws 2.5% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 538 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Bird Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.5%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Bird Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.4%, draws 4.5% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 6.0K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Bird Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.9%, draws 5.0% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 8.0K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Bird Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.6%, draws 6.8% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 6.7K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Bird Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 42.9%, draws 7.7% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 45 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Bird Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 49.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 8.4K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Bird Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.7%, draws 6.1% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Bird Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 42.6%, draws 7.6% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Bird Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Lasker-Pelikan Variation, Bird Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.0% of its games and loses 48.8%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.