Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation
33K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.4%.
Measured over 33K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 33K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 33K
- Best context
- 50.4% at 1200-1399 Blitz
- Worst context
- 43.2% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 31 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.0%
- Draws
- 3.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 63.9% at 0-999, 36.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 69.6% expected score (24 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 60.9% expected score (17 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (136 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (91 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (18 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (477 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (540 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (79 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (992 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (1,638 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (307 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1,403 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (3,571 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (750 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.9% expected score (31 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (2,111 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (5,373 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (1,260 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 60.5% expected score (32 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (2,450 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (4,941 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (808 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (34 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (2,553 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (2,302 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (186 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (509 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 37.6% expected score (91 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 27.8% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation scores 47.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.5% and 48.4% — from 33K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 33K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Black wins 46.4%, draws 3.0% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 33K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 50.1% (2.9K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 47.8% in Blitz (19K games) against 47.3% in Rapid (3.4K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 50.5%, draws 0.6% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 245 Lichess games, which average 23 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.7%, draws 2.2% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.3%, draws 1.6% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.5%, draws 2.3% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.5%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 8.8K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 8.2K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 41.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 603 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.1%, draws 2.2% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 19K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 45.4%, draws 3.8% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 49.3%, draws 5.9% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 109 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.4% of its games and loses 50.6%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.