TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation

33K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.9%Range (90% confident): 47.5% – 48.4%Based on 33K games
0%47.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.5% – 48.4%
Outcome Distribution
46.4%3.0%50.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Qc7
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation
Analyzen=33K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.0%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 47.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.5% and 48.4%), based on 33K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 65% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 64.8% win rate (44 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.5% win rate (245 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.7% win rate (1,098 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.3% win rate (2,948 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.5% win rate (5,756 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.5% win rate (8,776 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.4% win rate (8,233 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.2% win rate (5,041 games)
  • 2500+: 41.8% win rate (603 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (49%), worst in UltraBullet (14%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 14.3% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 47.1% win rate (10,655 games)
  • Blitz: 46.2% win rate (18,564 games)
  • Rapid: 45.4% win rate (3,414 games)
  • Classical: 49.3% win rate (109 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 69.6% expected score (24 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 60.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (136 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (91 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (18 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (477 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (540 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (79 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (992 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (1,638 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (307 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1,403 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (3,571 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (750 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.9% expected score (31 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (2,111 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (5,373 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (1,260 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 60.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (2,450 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (4,941 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (808 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (34 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (2,553 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (2,302 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (186 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (509 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 37.6% expected score (91 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 27.8% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Continuations (1)
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap
36.4%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 33K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 53.2% win rate for white (5.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.6%) outperforms Classical (44.8%) by 5.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 43.7%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 245 Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 0.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 47.6%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.6%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.1%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 8.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 8.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 52.0%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 5.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 50.5%-57.2%) win rate for white, based on 603 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.4%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.2%) win rate for white (19K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 49.4%-52.2%) win rate for white (3.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 44.8% (90% CI: 37.1%-52.6%) win rate for white (109 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation is statistically balanced with a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.