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Sicilian Defense: Polish Gambit

41K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

38.6%

35%55%
Floor38.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 39.0%.

Measured over 41K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 41K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
41K
Best context
43.9% at 1800-1999 Bullet
Worst context
32.2% at 0-999 Rapid
Average game length
29 moves
Games that end decisively
97.0%
Draws
3.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: −19.1% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 14.3% · Classical best · Bullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 37.6%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 33.5% expected score (50 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 35.5% expected score (2,101 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 36.6% expected score (2,943 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 32.2% expected score (1,418 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (24 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.9% expected score (56 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 37.8% expected score (2,338 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 39.3% expected score (3,426 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 34.9% expected score (1,253 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 33.5% expected score (62 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 31.0% expected score (64 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 40.2% expected score (2,761 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 39.5% expected score (3,846 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 33.5% expected score (1,435 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 26.3% expected score (66 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 36.3% expected score (57 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (2,620 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 39.5% expected score (3,935 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 34.7% expected score (1,443 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 19.4% expected score (108 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 42.9% expected score (1,940 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 40.6% expected score (3,242 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 34.2% expected score (1,001 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 15.9% expected score (41 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (1,137 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (1,531 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 36.0% expected score (431 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 14.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (534 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 39.8% expected score (393 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 35.6% expected score (75 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 40.4% expected score (226 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 36.5% expected score (65 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (38 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Polish Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Polish Gambit scores 38.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 38.2% and 39.0% — from 41K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
41K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Polish Gambit win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Polish Gambit, Black wins 37.1%, draws 3.0% and loses 59.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.6%. It rests on 41K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Polish Gambit perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Polish Gambit performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 41.9% (3.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Polish Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Sicilian Defense: Polish Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 39.4% in Blitz (19K games) against 34.0% in Rapid (7.1K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Polish Gambit?

The Sicilian Defense: Polish Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Polish Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 33.3%, draws 4.0% and loses 62.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.3%. It rests on 6.5K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Polish Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 36.5%, draws 2.7% and loses 60.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.9%. It rests on 7.1K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Polish Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 37.2%, draws 2.6% and loses 60.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.5%. It rests on 8.2K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Polish Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 38.0%, draws 2.5% and loses 59.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.3%. It rests on 8.2K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Polish Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 38.6%, draws 3.1% and loses 58.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.1%. It rests on 6.2K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Polish Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 40.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 56.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.9%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Polish Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 39.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 57.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.1%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Polish Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 37.2%, draws 5.8% and loses 57.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.1%. It rests on 301 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Polish Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 33.9%, draws 1.4% and loses 64.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 34.6%. It rests on 245 Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Polish Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 39.3%, draws 2.0% and loses 58.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.3%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Polish Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 37.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 58.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.4%. It rests on 19K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Polish Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 32.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 64.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 34.0%. It rests on 7.1K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Polish Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 22.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 73.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 24.8%. It rests on 310 Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Polish Gambit a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Polish Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 37.1% of its games and loses 59.9%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.