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Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Modern Line

438K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.5%

45%60%
Floor53.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.6%.

Measured over 438K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 5.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 438K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
438K
Best context
62.5% at 1400-1599 Rapid
Worst context
50.7% at 2000-2199 Blitz
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
94.8%
Draws
5.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 61.0% at 0-999, 53.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (97 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 63.6% expected score (54 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 68.4% expected score (23 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 60.8% expected score (650 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (298 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 66.0% expected score (108 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 60.7% expected score (2,925 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (1,625 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 67.1% expected score (312 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 71.8% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 64.9% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (8,189 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 60.8% expected score (7,852 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 62.5% expected score (1,390 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (79 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (17,954 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (31,477 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (4,139 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.8% expected score (331 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (27,207 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (70,566 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (10,922 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (789 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (34,082 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (73,815 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (13,931 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (639 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (39,360 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (57,084 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (7,142 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (116 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (16,885 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (7,616 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (520 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 57.3% expected score (19 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Modern Line PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Modern Line scores 53.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.4% and 53.6% — from 438K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
438K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Modern Line win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Modern Line, White wins 50.9%, draws 5.2% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 438K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Modern Line perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Modern Line performs best for White at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 61.3% (4.9K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Modern Line better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Modern Line scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 53.2% in Blitz (250K games) against 54.6% in Rapid (38K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Modern Line?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Modern Line has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Modern Line win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 56.7%, draws 1.4% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.4%. It rests on 174 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Modern Line win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 58.8%, draws 1.4% and loses 39.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.5%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Modern Line win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 60.3%, draws 2.0% and loses 37.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.3%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Modern Line win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 58.4%, draws 2.5% and loses 39.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.7%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Modern Line win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 55.8%, draws 3.4% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.5%. It rests on 54K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Modern Line win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 52.2%, draws 4.4% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 109K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Modern Line win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 48.8%, draws 5.5% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 122K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Modern Line win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 48.1%, draws 6.5% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 104K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Modern Line win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 48.3%, draws 8.6% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Modern Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 51.6%, draws 4.1% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 147K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Modern Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.4%, draws 5.6% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 250K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Modern Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 51.2%, draws 6.8% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 38K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Modern Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 50.1%, draws 9.5% and loses 40.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Modern Line a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Yugoslav Attack, Modern Line is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.9% of its games and loses 43.9%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.