Sicilian Defense: Keres Variation
409K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.2%.
Measured over 409K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 409K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 409K
- Best context
- 59.5% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 42.3% at 0-999 Rapid
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.5%
- Draws
- 4.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 47.2% at 0-999, 63.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (1,085 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (1,881 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (912 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 57.8% expected score (24 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (18 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (3,359 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (2,718 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (1,094 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (29 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 32.5% expected score (44 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (6,396 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (7,934 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (1,967 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 40.6% expected score (84 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.4% expected score (181 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (9,490 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (19,759 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (4,360 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.7% expected score (250 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.7% expected score (321 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (19,578 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (52,369 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (9,905 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (420 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (29 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (26,904 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (74,394 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (12,811 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (381 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (47 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (28,516 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (53,976 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (10,512 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (276 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (18,290 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (22,376 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (2,280 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 65.8% expected score (62 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 59.5% expected score (7,872 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (5,685 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.1% expected score (128 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Keres Variation scores 52.1% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.0% and 52.2% — from 409K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 409K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Keres Variation win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Keres Variation, White wins 49.8%, draws 4.5% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 409K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Keres Variation perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Keres Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 58.2% (14K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Keres Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Sicilian Defense: Keres Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.1% in Blitz (241K games) against 51.1% in Rapid (44K games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Keres Variation?
The Sicilian Defense: Keres Variation has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Keres Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 43.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Keres Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 47.2%, draws 2.1% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 7.2K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Keres Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 48.1%, draws 2.5% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Keres Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 49.2%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 34K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Keres Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 49.7%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 83K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Keres Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 50.0%, draws 4.2% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 115K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Keres Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 50.0%, draws 4.9% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 93K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Keres Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 50.3%, draws 5.8% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 43K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Keres Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 53.3%, draws 9.7% and loses 37.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.2%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Keres Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 49.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 647 Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Keres Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 51.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 121K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Keres Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 49.6%, draws 5.0% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 241K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Keres Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 48.3%, draws 5.5% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 44K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Keres Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 45.7%, draws 5.9% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Keres Variation a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Keres Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.8% of its games and loses 45.7%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.